Yu Darvish Could Bring $100M Commitment

[Giantmetfan07]

As of a few days ago, Nippon-Ham Fighters ace Yu Darvish was undecided about asking his team to post him as a means of moving to MLB for the 2012 season. The 25-year-old righty posted a 1.44 ERA, 10.7 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, and 0.19 HR/9 in 232 innings this year, and there will be a bidding frenzy if the Fighters post him.

In the posting system, MLB teams have until a certain date to submit bids for the exclusive rights to negotiate with the player. MLB GMs have the difficult task of choosing a bid that will be the highest but won't be significantly higher than the second-best bid. After the posting fee, the team must then sign the player to a contract. The player's only leverage is to return to Japan, in which case the posting fee is returned to the MLB team and the process is over for the year.

Five years ago, the Red Sox won the right to negotiate with Daisuke Matsuzaka for $51,111,111. They then negotiated a six-year, $52MM contract with Scott Boras, bringing the total commitment to $103,111,111. As we've seen with Boras' draft pick negotiations, he uses what little leverage he has to maximum advantage. There was a point in the Dice-K talks where an agreement with the Red Sox did not seem likely. Last year, the Athletics won the right to negotiate with Hisashi Iwakuma for $19.1MM, but the Rakuten Golden Eagles had to return the posting fee when the A's were unable to reach an agreement with agent Don Nomura. Darvish is represented by Nomura and Arn Tellem of Wasserman Media Group.

The Fighters have a lot to gain financially by posting Darvish now. Sure, they could wait until after the '12 or '13 seasons, but Darvish is healthy and at the top of his game right now. Agents I spoke to were divided on whether Matsuzaka's posting fee is relevant information in trying to predict what Darvish would require. Misinformation abounds from the Dice-K posting period, but most reports suggested $20-30MM bids until the Red Sox came in over $51MM. Only the Seibu Lions know for sure what the second-highest bid was, but in hindsight Boston might have been able to win the rights at $35MM.

Last week, I polled five agents and one team executive about Darvish's potential posting fee and contract. Guesses on the posting fee ranged from $30-55MM, with the team executive making the highest prediction. The average of the six guesses was $45MM. As for the contract, most people predicted a five or six-year deal in the $72-75MM range. One agent wondered if the winning team will "try to force some options down his throat," especially if it's the Blue Jays.

The bottom line: everyone I talked to expects a minimum of a $100MM commitment to acquire Darvish if he's posted this year. It's possible we'll see as many as six $100MM commitments this offseason, not including extensions.

-- MLBTR

Meaning simply, the team that posts him could get $40-$55M. and he could get probably $65-$75M himself.

I think its crazy because we really haven't seen a lot of Japanese pitchers hold their own here in the MLB.

 

[elcheato]

So basically, he's going to the Yankees or the Red Sox.

 

[The Guid]

I doubt the Sox would take that chance so soon after their first attempt (Matsuzaka) has failed. Not entirely out of the question but still unlikely.

 

[RipCity32]

Then the Yankees it is haha.

 

[Giantmetfan07]

Could be any number of teams. I mean, they're saying you could hear of maybe 6 teams making a big run for him.

Obviously Yankees will be top dogs. But I expect other teams like the Angels, Rangers, & Tigers being involved.

And I also heard the Royals, Nationals & Blue Jays are seriously loooking into signing him.

 

[Giantmetfan07]

Then the Yankees it is haha.

I get the feeling the Yankees will shoot for CJ Wilson and if they dont sign CJ then they'll probably land Darvish.

 

[RipCity32]

I get the feeling the Yankees will shoot for CJ Wilson and if they dont sign CJ then they'll probably land Darvish.

Yeah, sounds about right.

 

[The Guid]

Yankees should be more worried bringing CC back than signing either of those two

 

[Giantmetfan07]

But thing is, I think they get CJ Wilson.

They're too desperate to get a 2nd big arm in the rotation. Obviously they will keep CC. Any team with the $$ to sign CC will try to sign Pujols instead. And while they're so fixated on Pujols, CC will just be sitting there talking with the Yankees and hammering out a deal. So I think they'll basically settle with CC, and then sit down with CJ Wilson and, well, in simplest terms, ownership will hand Cashman a blank check.

So after its all said and done I think they get CJ Wilson and somebody else lands Darvish.

 

[Giantmetfan07]

Its gonna be like the NBA a year ago. The big names will sit out there, and the second one of them gets signed, everyone else will fall into place like dominoes. And I think the domino effect begins when Pujols and/or CC is signed.

 

[NV]

And to think our economy is in the shitter..

 

[bosoxlover12]

After Lackey and Crawford have sucked balls as Red Sox players, I REALLY doubt Cherington goes after big name free agents.

A Josh Willingham type would be nice, but hell no to Yu Darvish

 

[Mexi]

i could see the rangers going after him after they let CJ walk

they'll have the money

 

[Giantmetfan07]

filthy stuff.