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Toronto Raptors
Celtics receive: Kyle Lowry and Linas Kleiza
Raptors receive: Jared Sullinger, Avery Bradley, Jeff Green and Boston's 2013 first-round pick
Trade Machine: View the deal
This is the non-blow-it-up move for Boston to stay relevant this season. Everyone wants to know: Are the Raptors going to choose to keep longtime point guard Jose Calderon or the younger, more volatile Kyle Lowry? Whispers around the league suggest that the Toronto front office is divided on the issue and the Celtics could swoop in and take advantage of that possible dissension.
Lowry remains one of the most efficient point guards in the league (21.3 PER), but his uneven effort on the defensive end has reduced him to a 20-minute role off the bench for defensive-minded coach Dwane Casey. The Celtics could take on Linas Kleiza's contract that pays him $4.6 million this season and possibly next season, though the Celtics would probably hope he turns down his 2013-14 player option to go back overseas.
In order to give up Lowry and his tidy contract, the Raptors would likely need to receive young assets in return. Such a deal would likely require involving Avery Bradley, Jared Sullinger and a future first-rounder. But that would also necessitate the Raptors absorbing Green's undesirable four-year deal to make the money work. Would Toronto decision-maker Bryan Colangelo do that? We didn't think he'd give five years and $53 million to a then-30-year-old Hedo Turkoglu, either.
Los Angeles Lakers
Celtics receive: Dwight Howard, Metta World Peace and Chris Duhon
Lakers receive: Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Jason Collins
Trade Machine: View the deal
The blockbuster of all blockbuster deals. The Celtics would never send Pierce and Garnett to their once-hated rival, right? Stranger things have happened in this league. (Remember when Cleveland agreed to sign-and-trade LeBron James, or the time Phoenix gift-wrapped Steve Nash to the Lakers?) Obviously, the Celtics make this move to mold their next championship core around a healthy Rondo and Dwight Howard, but such a package is risky considering that Howard could walk at the end of this season.
But that's a risk the Celtics can take with a player like Howard, especially because they could offer a five-year deal to Howard in free agency when all other competitors could offer only four, thanks to the new CBA. For a guy recovering from back surgery, five years of security could be worth more than the extra money itself.
The Lakers would presumably only do this deal under three conditions: (1) The season goes back into the tank again; (2) Howard makes it clear that he's not signing long-term to be Kobe Bryant's sidekick; (3) Pau Gasol's trade stock continues to plummet. The Lakers would start five future Hall of Famers, but at the cost of kissing good-bye any hope of signing LeBron James in the summer of 2014 sweepstakes, if the reigning MVP is available.
Memphis Grizzlies
Celtics receive: Rudy Gay and Tony Wroten
Grizzlies receive: Paul Pierce and Chris Wilcox
Trade Machine: View the deal
This trade makes sense from the perspective that the Celtics would exchange Pierce for a younger, higher-upside talent in Gay. Additionally, rookie Tony Wroten could take over the point guard duties as a poor man's Tyreke Evans (remember, the Celtics don't have a pure point guard right now) and serve as Rondo's backup long-term.
On the Memphis side of things, the small-market club wouldn't have to look at Gay's swollen contract that pays him $17.8 million next season and $19 million after that if he enacts his player option in 2014-15. There's a chance that Pierce could sour upon arrival in Memphis, but those odds might be mitigated by the presence of former teammate and fellow "grit-and-grind" aficionado Tony Allen as well as the fact the Grizzlies have a better shot at a title than the Rondo-less Celtics.
But there are serious obstacles here. For one, the Celtics may not be enthused with Gay's good-but-not-great production and unpredictable future at that price tag. And yes, waiving Pierce in the offseason could shed $31 million off Memphis' books compared to keeping Gay, but Memphis would still have to find a small forward in addition to bringing back Allen, who is a free agent this summer. But Pierce is a superior floor-spacer and much more dependable defender than Gay. Could that put the Grizzlies over the top in the West?
Utah Jazz
Celtics receive: Derrick Favors, Marvin Williams, Jamaal Tinsley and Raja Bell
Jazz receive: Paul Pierce, Avery Bradley, Chris Wilcox and Boston's 2013 first-rounder
Trade Machine: View this deal
Utah possesses a boatload of bigs and the Celtics could use one. Believe it or not, Garnett won't be around forever and this deal would give the Celtics their next big man to solidify their long-term foundation next to Rondo. It would also give the Celtics a pass-first (pass-only?) point guard in Jamaal Tinsley, which is kind of a big deal considering the C's don't have a pure point guard on the roster without Rondo.
Favors remains one of the most promising young bigs in the game, averaging 15-and-10 every 36 minutes along with high-impact defense. But he's struggling to find 20 minutes a night with three other productive players in the Jazz frontcourt. By sending Pierce to Utah, this would be a cold move by the Boston front office, but the Celtics should have an eye on the future given Rondo's injury and this could save them about $1.5 million if they want to eventually get under the tax.
The only way the Jazz think about this deal is if they are big on Bradley's potential ahead of Gordon Hayward and they believe that Enes Kanter has a brighter future than Favors. Though Pierce would be reunited with former teammate Al Jefferson in this scenario, it may not offset the lifestyle change of moving from Boston to Salt Lake. But would a healthy Mo Williams, Randy Foye, Pierce, Paul Millsap and Jefferson make some noise in the West? Maybe, but it's hard to justify Utah going all-in this season without a backcourt player to build around; Bradley is probably not that guy.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Celtics receive: Kevin Love, Andrei Kirilenko, Brandon Roy, Luke Ridnour and Greg Stiemsma
Timberwolves receive: Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Jason Terry and Jared Sullinger
Trade Machine: View the deal
The only thing that might top a Lakers deal? If KG goes back to Minnesota to finish out his career right where it started. Again, Garnett holds a no-trade clause and could nix this deal on the spot. But the only place that might be more sentimental than Boston for Garnett's swan song is Minnesota, the team that selected him fifth overall in the 1995 draft.
For Boston, you do this deal under the buy-low, sell-high rule in Business 101. It's hard to imagine a worse season for Kevin Love, who is shooting a paltry 21.7 percent from downtown this season and currently sitting on the sidelines with a re-fractured shooting hand. But he's one of the best handful of young players in the league (currently No. 8 on Insider's top 25 under 25 rankings and an unprecedented rebounder/sharpshooter talent). If healthy, a Rondo-Love connection is easily one of the most tantalizing tandems in the East. And Ridnour and Kirilenko give them help right away.
Now, would Minnesota do the deal? Depends on how much it wants to win now. Since 2008, no team has won fewer games than the Timberwolves (121). Believe it or not, this would be the eighth straight losing season in Minnesota if it keeps up. It's not hard to imagine why GM David Kahn may be ready to exchange Love, who has had an icy relationship with the front office, for a package that could give them star power on both ends of the floor. It's a long shot, but mixed emotions aside, this monster deal makes some sense.
Atlanta Hawks
Celtics receive: Josh Smith, Lou Williams, Devin Harris, Zaza Pachulia, Ivan Johnson
Hawks receive: Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Jason Terry and Jared Sullinger
Trade Machine: View the deal
If Danny Ainge is looking at a blow-it-up scenario, it's easy to see why Atlanta GM Danny Ferry would be willing to talk. The Hawks are an obvious trade partner because of the ongoing disruptive behavior of their star-and-free-agent-to-be Josh Smith, but also because of their high-performing veterans on one-year deals, something the Celtics could covet. It's hard to find a highly productive player with more upside and more in need of a change of scenery than Smith.
To be clear, Smith is no spring chicken at age 27 and that's not the best time to hand out a max deal. But look around and you'll find that there's just not another player of Smith's caliber on the market. Elsewhere, the 26-year-old Williams would be a perfect platoon mate in the backcourt next to Bradley for the long-term and the Harris-Pachulia combo could fill out the Celtics' playoff-ready rotation for the rest of the season. Worst-case scenario is that Smith doesn't pan out and the Celtics shed gobs of money when Smith, Pachulia, Harris and Johnson's deals expire at the end of the season, which would fully engage them into rebuild mode for the 2013-14 season.
The upshot from Atlanta's perspective is it can flip its expiring contracts into a borderline contender in the East, but the Hawks would first need Garnett to waive his no-trade clause. Working in Atlanta's favor in such a scenario is that Garnett grew up two hours outside of Atlanta in Greenville, S.C. Not working in Atlanta's favor is that Garnett famously called out Atlanta co-owner Michael Gearon Jr. in the playoffs last season. Still, can't count out an Atlanta-Boston hookup, even though it seems Ferry's No. 1 priority is to maintain flexibility for a potential Dwight Howard chase.
Other teams to watch
Sacramento Kings
Tyreke Evans has long been the apple of Ainge's eye, dating back to the 2009 draft. But considering that the Kings are currently in the midst of a sale, a shake-up doesn't sound likely. DeMarcus Cousins is another name to watch, but it's unlikely for the same reason that Evans might be staying put. The Kings aren't looking to win now so it makes little sense for them to take on Pierce or Garnett at the moment unless a third team is involved.
Houston Rockets
The Rockets are always looking to find a star player to pair with James Harden and they have a crater at the power forward position, so a deal for Garnett's services is interesting on the surface. However, two things: Garnett would have to agree to the deal and, more importantly, is 37 years old with about $24 million left on his deal through age 39. Houston remains a possibility in trade talks simply because it can take on salary and wields attractive trade assets for a rebuilding team, but the Rockets are more likely to participate in a three-team deal, not a straight-up one. But don't count out a Kevin McHale-Garnett reunion.
