Who Climbs, Who Falls, in the Western Conference?

BwareDWare94

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The Western Conference has it's top 5 teams pretty well squared up in Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Houston, Los Angeles Clippers, and Portland. After that, it's a hodgepodge mashup of the likes of Dallas, Golden State, Phoenix, Memphis, and even Minnesota could make some noise, if recent wins against Indiana and Phoenix are any indication. 
 
So the question is, who are your top 8 teams in the West. Though the top 5 are likely determined, in what order do you place them come the end of the season? List your top 8 predictions, with explanations, and also list the 9 and 10 seeds with explanations of why you don't think they'll make it.
 
1. Oklahoma City: They're just too strong, even if Russ can't stay healthy. They'll maul most teams and have just received a blessing in disguise with the loss of Kendrick Perkins, which will force Brooks to allow Steven Adams to develop quicker than he'd like him to. Their bench has been good, and they're just too damn hot, right now, for the rest of the West to compete.
 
2. San Antonio: What the Spurs do that seeds 3 on down don't is beat every team that they should beat, and that alone will keep them ahead of both Houston and LAC, teams that have great ups but mind boggling down periods that have them looking like borderline playoff teams. Both have come along nicely as the season has progressed, and the lows shouldn't be nearly as low, but they'll still have bad spots that won't allow them to overtake SA.
 
3. Houston: Dwight's on a tear, and Houston is finally getting healthy. The addition of Jordan Hamilton is already paying dividends, and I'll even venture a guess that Houston gets in on the Granger sweepstakes once Danny is bought out of Philadelphia. If the Rockets get Granger, it'll allow them to completely phase out the likes of the terrible Omri Casspi, as well as continue to let Frankie Garcia get fully healthy and prepared to be a knockdown shooter, come playoff time. 
 
4. Los Angeles Clippers: Blake Griffin is making his case for best 4 in the league, but until we see him sustain this success into the playoffs, we simply don't know what to make of him. DeAndre Jordan has become a different player under Doc Rivers, and the Clippers are finally something that they really have never been: well coached. Injuries to players like sharpshooter JJ Redick could prove costly for seeding purposes, but as long as he and others are healthy come playoff time, the Clippers will be as dangerous as anyone.
 
5. Portland: While the Blazers have steadied after a nasty stretch, they're just not as dominant as they were early in the season, and that's what happens to jump shooting teams. Stotts still has no clue what to do with his bench, which makes no sense as he has a ton of talent with which to find suitable roles for each player. Coaching issues have brought the Blazers back to Earth yet again, and fans who enjoy low profile teams having success can only hope that Stotts figures out his bench in time for Blazers to be truly dangerous come playoff time.
 
6. Memphis: The Grizzlies have gotten it going at the right time, but not figuring out a way to trade Tayshaun for another shooter in Chase Budinger could prove costly. The Grizzlies have better outside shooters than they've had in recent years, but Prince simply takes up space and should be relegated to the bench once Pondexter gets healthy. Joerger has been making the right decisions so far, which includes phasing Tony Allen out of the starting lineup in favor of the more offensively skilled (yet still a good defender) Courtney Lee. Memphis may have started too slowly to catch the West's elite, but if they end up with the right matchup in round one, they could beat anybody.
 
7. Dallas: Rick Carlisle deserves to be coach of the year if this joke of a Mavs roster somehow makes the playoffs. He has them clicking on all cylinders, already reaching their potential as a lower seed playoff team. Don't trick yourselves into thinking this team is truly dangerous to seeds 1-4 (honestly--they're just going to be a waste of a playoff spot), but don't underestimate the possibilities created by good coaching. This team would have 20some wins with a lesser coach at the helm. This Rockets fan can only wish that Carlisle and McHale were swapped. 
 
8. Golden State: I just don't like how the season has gone so far for the Dubs, and I'm not all that high on them, moving forward. Maybe they'll prove me wrong, but with Bogut missing more games, and Ezeli still not healthy, the Center position is a real concern for this team, especially if Jermaine O'Neal eventually does what Jermaine O'Neal does, and gets hurt. I don't like the sum of all pieces, anymore. Iguodala is overrated, and it's clear that the Warriors miss both Jack and Landry's leadership off the bench. If this team gets healthy, they could be dangerous as long as they don't get matched up with OKC, but that's my prediction, as of now.
 
9. Phoenix: The Suns have already dropped to 8th, and while they've clawed their way out of nosedives before, I just don't see it with this roster, not with Miles Plumlee and Channing Frye starting at the 4 and 5. Eventually, the sum of all parts will add up correctly, and this team will fall out of a playoff seed.
 
10. Minnesota: I don't believe in this roster. They don't continually play with heart, and they don't play enough defense. While they could become dangerous if they string some wins together, they've shown no indications that they will do so. They could beat Indiana one night, and lose to someone like Charlotte the next. Makes no sense. 
 

dcpwner

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i think Memphis keeps rising and if they get the 6th seed the Rockets could see an early exit similar scenario if GSW gets healthy
 

jonathanlambert33

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Good post bware. I'm going to look into this tonight.
 

Brutalis

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San Antonio will be back in the Finals if they can get healthy and Westbrook does his ritual miss a few months routine. Otherwise OKC will be. Hopefully both squads are healthy and we'll see our first 100% v 100% Western Conference titans go at it.
 

CameronCrazy06

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Was SA not 100% in 2012?

Also don't discount the Clippers.
 

jonathanlambert33

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Late but:
1. San Antonio- This has more to do with OKC than San Antonio, but the Spurs do seem to be playing better as of late. Their offense has picked up, and they're still playing great defense.

2. Oklahoma City- The loss of Perkins has helped them offensively, but hurt them defensively. They have felt that loss more defensively however, allowing nearly a point more per 100 possessions. The loss of Sefolosha will only hurt them more.

3. Los Angeles- Addition of Glen Davis will improve this team. Improvement defensively is huge. Blake Griffin is playing the best basketball of his career.

4. Houston- Like LA, the addition of Jordan Hamilton has been. Hamilton was a guy who showed a lot of flashes in Denver, and played good ball early in the season. He kind of got faded out however like a few others by Shaw.

5. Portland- Portland has come back down to earth quite a bit. There once surprisingly solid defense has fallen off a cliff and they've dropped all the way to 20th in defensive efficiency. Just as I've predicted, LaMarcus Aldridge rebounding has dipped as the season has advanced. This is a team that may be an early out in the playoffs.

6. Golden State- I think the great outside shooting of Curry and Thompson kind of leads to Golden State being overrated offensively. They weren't a top 10 offensive team last season and they aren't one this season. They've been the victims of their own success against good matchups in last seasons playoffs. However, defense is a different story. I have seen a number of different people ask about Iguodala, was his signing a bust, how much is he helping them, etc. Truth be told, they were a slightly above average offensive team last season and they are one this season. Little to no improvement or regression. Defensively though, they've gone from average to one of the better teams in the league. Iggy has left a mark.

7. Memphis- Memphis has seen an improvement since acquiring Courtney Lee. The loss of Mike Conley for seven games has slowed them down a bit though, so I don't think they will move up as far as I would have expected a few weeks ago. I'm also unsure if they will be able to make much noise in the postseason.

8. Phoenix- Bledsoe doesn't seem to be far off from returning, but what does that mean for Dragic? Dragic is having a really good season, but it didn't become really good until Bledsoe went out. Dragic saw about a 5 ppg increase when Bledsoe went out, and more than a half assist more per game in Bledsoe's absence. He did not see an increase in his minutes.
 

Mexi

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Rox would beat portland
Could beat spurs or sun

Wcf is realistic
 

Brutalis

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I honestly see Portland and SA being the best series of that conference. I'm biased, and see SA in the Finals against Indiana this time. Surely Miami doesn't win the refs twice.
 

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