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We had the beginnings of a decent little discussion talking about the T-Wolves, and I was hoping we could dive into it a little deeper here.
I've always said that differential is actually a decent judge of how good a team really is. So I was wondering how a team like the Wolves, who had the tenth best differential in the league finished tenth in their own conference.
First thing I looked at was obviously the make up of the roster. Ricky Rubio, Kevin Martin, Corey Brewer, Kevin Love, Nikola Pekovic, and their bench guys like Barea, Budinger, Cunningham, Turiaf, etc. I first thought of Kevin Love, and thought about his averages, but how his averages may be better than the actual player he is, and as a result I thought to myself he was likely a "star" or even "superstar" that probably was not very effective in crunch time. That led me to assuming the Wolves themselves couldn't be very good in crunch time and I was right.
In games decided by three or less points, they had a losing record. Of the top 20 teams in the league, only New York, Phoenix, Washington, and Toronto were worse. Kevin Loves impact also took a nose dive in crunch time. His field goal percentage dropped 8%, his three point percentage dropped 2%, his free throw percentage dropped 14%, and most surprisingly his rebound numbers even fell off a cliff. He goes from an elite big man rebounder to an elite level swing rebounder, and hint hint a elite level swing rebounder is the equivalent of a well below average big man rebounder. Is it a conditioning issue? Who knows. But it brings me back to the "Love isn't as good as his averages" statement. He's not a guy that's going to close games for you.
Minnesota likes to isolate him at the elbow or in the short corner, but he's not an efficient option. He settles for a lot of jumpers, but shoots only 34.6% on those jumpers. Same goes for his turnarounds, step backs, etc. Minny posts him up more than anything else they do with him, and he's a solid post option, but he's still not good enough to be a great post option. His percentages could be higher in the post, though he does draw a solid number of shooting fouls. Then what else does he have? He is not an efficient pick and pop player, shooting 44% from the field and only 28% on his threes when he pops. He's more of a team offensive player. He's actually very good in transition, shooting 49% from distance and 61% in general. He's actually not an elite offensive rebounder, he's just average, but when he does pull down an offensive board he's very effective at putting it back. He's also one of the best cutters in the league. So iso, post up, p&p? Could be better. Transition, put backs, cutting, I guess some people like to call that garbage or easy buckets, he's brilliant.
And lastly that brings me back to the team. It's crunch time, defense and intensity grows, if Kevin Love isn't an effective option to get you a bucket, who is? First guess would probably be Kevin Martin. But he is not the young Kevin Martin anymore. He's a sub 40% isolation player. He's a sub 30% PnR player. He's a 35% spot up shooter. Get the point? Do you want Ricky Rubio trying to score for you? Corey Brewer? Nikola Pekovic? Again, sure you get the point. There is no one that team can count on. Back to how Minny plays in crunch time, they own the second worst point differential in the league at -2.2, only Milwaukee was worse at -2.4 points. They are 22nd offensively and the leagues worst defensively. Which is also puzzling, as they are average defensively.
I've always said that differential is actually a decent judge of how good a team really is. So I was wondering how a team like the Wolves, who had the tenth best differential in the league finished tenth in their own conference.
First thing I looked at was obviously the make up of the roster. Ricky Rubio, Kevin Martin, Corey Brewer, Kevin Love, Nikola Pekovic, and their bench guys like Barea, Budinger, Cunningham, Turiaf, etc. I first thought of Kevin Love, and thought about his averages, but how his averages may be better than the actual player he is, and as a result I thought to myself he was likely a "star" or even "superstar" that probably was not very effective in crunch time. That led me to assuming the Wolves themselves couldn't be very good in crunch time and I was right.
In games decided by three or less points, they had a losing record. Of the top 20 teams in the league, only New York, Phoenix, Washington, and Toronto were worse. Kevin Loves impact also took a nose dive in crunch time. His field goal percentage dropped 8%, his three point percentage dropped 2%, his free throw percentage dropped 14%, and most surprisingly his rebound numbers even fell off a cliff. He goes from an elite big man rebounder to an elite level swing rebounder, and hint hint a elite level swing rebounder is the equivalent of a well below average big man rebounder. Is it a conditioning issue? Who knows. But it brings me back to the "Love isn't as good as his averages" statement. He's not a guy that's going to close games for you.
Minnesota likes to isolate him at the elbow or in the short corner, but he's not an efficient option. He settles for a lot of jumpers, but shoots only 34.6% on those jumpers. Same goes for his turnarounds, step backs, etc. Minny posts him up more than anything else they do with him, and he's a solid post option, but he's still not good enough to be a great post option. His percentages could be higher in the post, though he does draw a solid number of shooting fouls. Then what else does he have? He is not an efficient pick and pop player, shooting 44% from the field and only 28% on his threes when he pops. He's more of a team offensive player. He's actually very good in transition, shooting 49% from distance and 61% in general. He's actually not an elite offensive rebounder, he's just average, but when he does pull down an offensive board he's very effective at putting it back. He's also one of the best cutters in the league. So iso, post up, p&p? Could be better. Transition, put backs, cutting, I guess some people like to call that garbage or easy buckets, he's brilliant.
And lastly that brings me back to the team. It's crunch time, defense and intensity grows, if Kevin Love isn't an effective option to get you a bucket, who is? First guess would probably be Kevin Martin. But he is not the young Kevin Martin anymore. He's a sub 40% isolation player. He's a sub 30% PnR player. He's a 35% spot up shooter. Get the point? Do you want Ricky Rubio trying to score for you? Corey Brewer? Nikola Pekovic? Again, sure you get the point. There is no one that team can count on. Back to how Minny plays in crunch time, they own the second worst point differential in the league at -2.2, only Milwaukee was worse at -2.4 points. They are 22nd offensively and the leagues worst defensively. Which is also puzzling, as they are average defensively.
