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1. Indianapolis Colts - Andrew Luck, QB Stanford
The status of Colts legend Peyton Manning is still up in the air after multiple neck surgeries, and Manning will be 36 years old next season. Meanwhile, Luck is a once-in-a-generation prospect with the physical tools and mental makeup to start from day one. Given the financial considerations involved, the smart decision is to draft Luck and part ways with Manning.
2. St. Louis Rams - Matt Kalil, OT USC
The status of Colts legend Peyton Manning is still up in the air after multiple neck surgeries, and Manning will be 36 years old next season. Meanwhile, Luck is a once-in-a-generation prospect with the physical tools and mental makeup to start from day one. Given the financial considerations involved, the smart decision is to draft Luck and part ways with Manning.
3. Minnesota Vikings - Riley Reiff, OT Iowa
The Vikings desperately need offensive weapons to help young QB Christian Ponder, but they also need to better protect their investment in Ponder. Reiff needs to get stronger, but he is an underrated athlete with the potential to become a very good starting left tackle in the NFL.
4. Cleveland Browns - Robert Griffin III, QB Baylor
Current Browns QB Colt McCoy has shown good toughness, mental capacity and short-to-intermediate accuracy, but his lack of size and arm strength to drive the ball downfield put too many limitations on the offense. Assuming no team trades ahead of them to take Griffin, the Browns can add a dynamic weapon who will open things up. He still must improve his consistency as a decision-maker and with his underneath touch/accuracy, but his downfield accuracy was vastly improved in 2011.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Morris Claiborne, CB LSU
Current Buccaneers RB LeGarrette Blount is no Trent Richardson, so dont't rule out Alabama's bell-cow back as an option here. Tampa Bay's cornerback situation is a nightmare, though, with Ronde Barber on the decline and Aqib Talib facing off-field issues. Claiborne would bring to Tampa the best man-to-man cover skills in the 2012 class, along with good speed and instincts.
6. Washington Redskins - Justin Blackmon, WR Oklahoma State
This pick is made with the assumption the Redskins do not trade up to take Griffin and plan to fill their quarterback need via free agency (Peyton Manning?). They also have a need at cornerback and would likely take Claiborne if he were available, but in this scenario Blackmon is the best choice. He offers an upgrade over current starters Santana Moss and Jabar Gaffney and would give Washington a big-bodied receiver who can produce down the field.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars - Quinton Coples, DE North Carolina
The Jaguars are desperate for help at receiver, but Blackmon is off the board and Coples presents great value at this point. He's the most talented defensive prospect in the 2012 class and showcased a versatile skill set and the potential to be a dominant player throughout Senior Bowl week.
8. Miami Dolphins - Melvin Ingram, DE/OLB South Carolina
Quarterback and right offensive tackle are bigger needs, but there is not an available player at either of those positions who's worth drafting here. Cameron Wake is Miami's only legitimate pass-rushing threat and he turns 30 next season, so Ingram makes sense. He can play tackle in a four-man front or end in a three-man front, giving the Dolphins the scheme versatility they want under new defensive coordinator Kevin Coye, and Ingram had a penchant for making big plays during his senior season.
9. Carolina Panthers - Michael Brockers, DT LSU
Carolina also has needs at receiver, cornerback and guard, but coach Ron Rivera needs a disruptive force along the defensive interior, and Brockers can be just that. He's a massive presence and strong, quick and aware as a run-stuffer. While he'll never be a great pass-rusher, Brockers has more potential in that area than his college production would seem to indicate.
10. Buffalo Bills - Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB Alabama
Buffalo nailed the 2011 draft with three strong picks on defense (DL Marcell Dareus, CB Aaron Williams, LB Kelvin Sheppard), and the chance to add a pass-rusher like Upshaw would be hard to pass up. Upshaw is a versatile DE/OLB hybrid, and while he doesn't have elite speed he shows savvy as a pass-rusher and effective quickness-to-power moves. He's also very strong against the run and was highly productive in the SEC.
11. Seattle Seahawks - Trent Richardson, RB Alabama
Richardson is a top-five talent but will likely slip a bit because of positional value considerations. Falling this far would be a surprise, but none of the teams in the top 10 have a pressing need at running back. If none of them ignore need to take the best player available, the Seahawks will feel like they've won the lottery. Both Marshawn Lynch and Justin Forsett are free agents, and Richardson would bring with him an elite combination of size, speed, power, quickness and vision.
12. Kansas City Chiefs - Luke Kuechly, ILB Boston College
Bigger holes exist along the offensive line and at nose tackle, but Kuechly is clearly the best player on the board at this point. The Chiefs would make this pick with the hope Kuchly would give new coach Romeo Crennel the kind of leadership and production Tedy Bruschi provided for the New England defenses Crennel coached in the early 2000s. Kuechly shows rare instincts and is a healthier version of current Cowboys standout Sean Lee.
13. Arizona Cardinals - David DeCastro, G Stanford
This might seem a bit high for a guard, but DeCastro was the most dominant interior offensive lineman in the nation in 2011 and has a chance to develop into one of the elite NFL players at his position. Offensive tackle is also a need area, but DeCastro is a much better overall player than the top available tackle. Cornerback could also be a consideration, but both Janoris Jenkins (North Alabama) and Dre Kirkpatrick (Alabama) carry off-field baggage.
14. Dallas Cowboys - Janoris Jenkins, CB North Alabama
Corner is a top need area, and Jenkins proved at the Senior Bowl that he's still an elite cover corner after spending a year at the Division II level. Dallas will need to get comfortable with his character issues, though, including legal issues that led to his dismissal from the Florida program.
15. Philadelphia Eagles - Devon Still, DT Penn State
Opinions on Still vary widely. I have an early-second round grade on him, but many feel he is a mid-first-rounder. There is a lot to like about his upside, given his size and ability to penetrate and disrupt. He is inconsistent on tape, but it's hard to find guys with his combination of skills. Alabama S Mark Barron would be a consideration, but the Eagles got S Jaiquan Jarrett in the second round last year, and this would be a bit early for an outside linebacker like North Carolina's Zach Brown. Philadelphia fans, feel free to disagree.
16. New York Jets - Mark Barron, S Alabama
The Jets need help in the secondary to deal with the Patriots' tight end duo of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez twice a season, and Barron is the only 2012 safety prospect with a first-round grade. He does everything well, showing instincts and playmaking skills in coverage and the ability to be a physical run defender when playing near the box.
17. Cincinnati Bengals (from OAK) - Dre Kirkpatrick, CB Alabama
Character is not high on the Bengals' list of priorities when evaluating prospects, so they won't be turned off by Kirkpatrick's recent off-field issues. Cincinnati needs help on the defensive perimeter with Leon Hall coming off an injury and uncertainty surrounding Pacman Jones and Kelly Jennings, and Kirkpatrick can provide it. He will never be an elite man-to-man cover corner, but he has good size and is instinctive, athletic and physical.
18. San Diego Chargers - Jonathan Martin, OT Stanford
San Diego needs an upgrade over current right tackle Jeromey Clary, and Martin has starting potential. He's still growing into his body and was not as dominant as I'd hoped when I went back to the 2011 tape, but he still has good run-blocking skills and remains a potential first-rounder.
19. Chicago Bears - Kendall Wright, WR Baylor
The Bears have not spent a first-round pick on a wide receiver since David Terrell in 2001, and at some point they have to pull the trigger on a playmaker for QB Jay Cutler. A versatile speedster who can threaten defenses vertically and is dangerous after the catch, Wright is on the rise after catching 108 passes for 1,663 yards and hauling in 14 touchdowns in 2011.
20. Tennessee Titans - Nick Perry, DE USC
The Titans have three defensive ends set to become free agents and need a dynamic pass-rusher to complement Derrick Morgan. While Perry is raw, he has good initial burst and natural pass-rush skills. Cornerback, safety and offensive line are also need areas, but Perry makes the most sense in this situation.
21. Cincinnati Bengals - Lamar Miller, RB Miami
Cedric Benson is set to become a free agent, so the Bengals need speed in the backfield, and Miller is a burner. No back in the class has a better combination of lateral agility and acceleration, and while this might be a bit of a reach given his postseason shoulder surgery, Miller is a home run threat who would be a nice complement to budding starts QB Andy Dalton and WR A.J. Green.
22. Cleveland Browns (from ATL) - Michael Floyd, WR Notre Dame
Floyd is a big downfield target with better run-after-catch ability than he's given credit for, and he is a hard worker who has matured after some off-field issues early in his career. Adding RG3 and Floyd would give the Cleveland offense a badly needed shot in the arm, much like the Bengals got from Dalton and Green in 2011.
23. Detroit Lions - Cordy Glenn, G Georgia
There is no cornerback or linebacker available who is worth this pick, so it might be an opportunity for the Lions to trade back with at team looking to trade up and get a quarterback like Ryan Tannehill (Texas A&M) or Brock Osweiler (Arizona State). If not, Glenn is a solid pick. He has the size and power to thrive at guard in the NFL and could develop into a solid right tackle at some point. He held up well against top pass-rushers at the Senior Bowl but is still a work in progress at that position.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers - Mike Adams, OT Ohio State
The Steelers have been plagued by injuries and inconsistency along the offensive line, and there's no question Adams has the natural ability to quickly emerge as a starting tackle in the NFL. He's not as nasty as I would like a first-round tackle to be, but he's an easy mover for his size (6-foot-7, 323 pounds) and capable of upgrading the perimeter protection around battered QB Ben Roethlisberger.
25. Denver Broncos - Ryan Tannehill, QB Texas A&M
This would clearly be an unpopular pick in Denver, but the Broncos need to bring in competition for Tim Tebow, and not many free-agent quarterbacks will be willing to walk into a pressure-cooker situation alongside Tebow. If not here, Denver will be forced to wait until the 57th overall pick (assuming no trades are made), and at that point all of the top six quarterbacks will likely be off the board. Tannehill is intriguing because he's a good athlete (former wide receiver) who can operate some of the same option and rollout concepts the Broncos have implemented for Tebow. Denver would also have a legitimate prospect to develop if Tebow is unable to significantly improve his accuracy, so it seems like a good fit. However, there are also needs at corner, defensive tackle and tight end to consider.
26. Houston Texans - Coby Fleener, TE Stanford
The Texans would rather get a wideout here to complement Andre Johnson, but Rutgers' Mohamed Sanu and South Carolina's Alshon Jeffery would be reaches at this point. A difference-maker at tight end would help, though, and Fleener is a reliable target with toughness, a competitive nature and underrated speed/athleticism. He could draw some attention to the middle away from Johnson, and with a deep wideout class Houston could find a quality receiver in the next couple of rounds.
27. New England Patriots (from N.O.) - Chandler Jones, DE Syracuse
The Patriots have two first-round picks, and while coach Bill Belichick's track record indicates he'll trade one of them, we have to project both to the Patriots until we know otherwise. Jones is an under-the-radar pass-rusher with the frame (6-5, 247) Bill Belichick likes in his DE/OLB hybrids, and he's a gifted athlete who bends the edge naturally. He's the brother of Ravens DL Arthur Jones and MMA sensation Jon Jones.
28. Green Bay Packers - Ronnell Lewis, OLB Oklahoma
This is a bit of a reach, but no more so than any of the players who fit Green Bay's need at defensive end (5-technique) or cornerback. The Packers must find a pass-rusher who can complement OLB Clay Matthews, and Lewis would bring natural burst and athleticism to the table.
29. Baltimore Ravens - Vontaze Burfict, ILB Arizona State
Burfict is a physical freak with tremendous athleticism and explosive power. He's a top-20 talent, but questions about his discipline on and off the field are hurting his stock. However, Burfict could contribute immediately and would benefit greatly from the leadership and guidance of Ravens MLB Ray Lewis. And you have to wonder whether the Ravens would press their luck and take another player with character flags after bringing CB Jimmy Smith into the fold last year.
30. San Francisco 49ers - Alfonzo Dennard, CB Nebraska
Dennard has some durability issues and lacks ideal recovery speed, but he shows good instincts and a physical style, and his 2010 tape is far better than the injury-plagued version we saw in 2011. He could be a good fit for a 49ers secondary that could lose Carlos Rogers to free agency and needs an overall talent upgrade.
31. New York Giants - Dwayne Allen, TE Clemson
Alabama ILB Dont'a Hightower would be a good fit, but also a bit of a reach, and offensive tackle and cornerback are also on the Giants' short list. However, given the players available, a seam-stretching tight end such as Allen would be a good option. He could open up some room for New York's perimeter threats, and he also improved as an in-line blocker in 2011.
32. New England Patriots - Brandon Thompson, DT Clemson
Filling a need at wide receiver would be a reach here, so Thompson becomes attractive. His motor runs hot and cold and he played much better in 2010, but Thompson can be overpowering against the run and flashes the ability to collapse the pocket as a pass-rusher. Other interior DLs who could be on the radar: Jerel Worthy (Michigan State), Fletcher Cox (Mississippi State), Devon Still (Penn State) and Dontari Poe (Memphis).
