The Anti-Recruiting Tool

[jonathanlambert33]

Former Illinois forward Jereme Richmond has obviously made a number of questionable decisions in the last 12 months. From entering the NBA Draft to the behavior that led an arrest, there have been many times when basketball fans have asked, “What was he thinking?”

But another one of his questionable decisions may have been attending Illinois in the first place. If his plan was to be a one-and-done player, was Bruce Weber really the ideal coach to showcase his skills? While Bruce Weber has shown a consistent ability to develop players, he is not exactly known for showcasing freshmen for NBA scouts. Last year, the Illinois message boards were replete with requests to play Richmond more, but Weber stuck with his veterans.

Statistically, you might assume that Bruce Weber is unwilling to play his younger players. But Weber is certainly not the biggest outlier in the data. The next table shows the percentage of minutes of playing time that BCS coaches have given to freshman, sophomores, juniors, and seniors in the last nine years. This table includes data at every D1 school where the coach has been in the last nine years, not just their current school. Average class is a measure of the average class age with a weight of 1 for freshmen, 2 for sophomores, 3 for juniors, and 4 for seniors. I also list the number of years of data for each coach.

Regular followers of college basketball should not be surprised that John Calipari has had the youngest teams on average. And his willingness to trust young players began even before Kentucky. This table includes Calipari’s tenure at Memphis as well.

I think more people would be surprised that Billy Donovan’s Florida teams have been equally young. Donovan’s first NCAA title was led by a group of sophomores, his second was led by the same group of juniors, and he rarely has many seniors on his roster.

The fact that Tom Crean’s teams have been young is not a surprise. After Dwyane Wade left for the NBA, Crean invested heavily in developing freshman at Marquette, and after Kelvin Sampson imploded the Indiana program, he has had to focus on younger players with the Hoosiers.

On the flip side, Tom Crean’s replacement Buzz Williams has been extremely hesitant to play younger players. Buzz has used transfers in order to avoid giving playing time to freshmen. (This data includes his one year at New Orleans where he also eschewed the use of freshmen.)

Because he inherited a senior-laded team at St. John’s, Steve Lavin is second on this list. But he is going to drop substantially this season. His team of seniors is gone and he is starting from scratch. (This data also includes his 2003 UCLA team which was relatively experienced.) But we need to be careful about coaches with limited data. I think these trends are much more powerful for D1 head coaches who have held their jobs for numerous seasons:

Among these coaches, Notre Dame’s Mike Brey consistently refuses to play young players. Brey’s teams have also had extremely low turnover rates every year, and his teams are consistently in the Top 20 in offense. You have to believe that there is a connection between these trends. Freshmen take a lot of stupid shots and commit dumb turnovers, and by minimizing minutes for freshmen, Mike Brey has consistently had one of the top offensive teams.

The fact that Bob Huggins focuses on veteran players is not a total shock. He built his Cincinnati program on junior college transfers. And while he has used more freshmen at West Virginia, he prefers to play his experienced players.

But I’m not sure people realize how committed Dana Altman and Mike Anderson have been to their veteran players. Both coaches like to play big rotations at times, but they still rely on their upperclassmen in crunch time. I find it quite a bit of a shock that Bo Ryan’s teams have been younger than Altman and Anderson’s teams on average. (Of course Bo Ryan is still the rare coach who is willing to red-shirt a McDonald’s All-American.)

Finally, I want to end by pointing out the numbers for Thad Matta. While Matta has given major playing time to a number of one-and-done freshmen over the years, he has also given major minutes to his seniors. That young and old dichotomy is very rare in the table. But perhaps that is also the table’s biggest punchline. There are many ways to build a winning program. John Calipari’s focus on younger players may be the best way to get elite recruits, but it isn’t the only way to build a winning program.

http://basketball.realgm.com/article/216464/The_Anti_Recruiting_Tool

The real reason I posted this is because of the chart in the article. Kentucky has the most freshman of any team listed (33%) which is easily the highest, next highest is Florida at 28%.