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From:realgm
Jeff Risdon/RealGM - Two weeks and counting to the draft!
As always, a few disclaimers:
-- Please do not interpret this as "this is what Jeff would do." I am trying to forecast what the given teams would do in the given situation. I will release a "what I would do" mock next week.
-- Don't send me emails or comment on message boards that "I guarantee you Team X would never do that." First, it makes you look childish and stupid. Second, unless you are in fact the draft decision maker for Team X, you have no idea. To use the Jim Mora quote, "you think you know, but you really don't know."
-- As the draft progresses further, I'm much more interested in slotting the player to a spot and not necessarily the team currently picking in that spot.
-- Do not assume that teams will not use multiple picks on the same position in the same draft. It happens a lot more than you think.
Round 1
1. Carolina Panthers: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn.
I'm one of the growing number of folks that think this is very likely to happen.
2. Denver Broncos: Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama.
This pick seems fairly certain at this point. This pick is for sale.
3. Buffalo Bills: Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M.
It’s still open for debate if they would take Newton, but in this scenario they won’t have to make that choice.
4. Cincinnati Bengals: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia.
I think most folks overestimate their need for a wideout, but Green is a major talent that makes the Bengals better right away. If someone really wants Patrick Peterson, a trade down could be in order.
5. Arizona Cardinals: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri.
This is assuming they realize they cannot count on getting a veteran via free agency. Robert Quinn or Von Miller makes this far from a lock pick.
6. Cleveland Browns: Robert Quinn, DE/OLB, North Carolina.
Given this scenario it’s either Quinn or Julio Jones. Mike Holmgren is not taking a CB in the top 10 two years in a row, Peterson fans...
7. San Francisco 49ers: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU.
A better playmaker than cover man, but that fits what the Niners need. I think they go QB later on ... or perhaps earlier.
8. Tennessee Titans: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn.
Hard to see the DL-needy Titans passing on DL coach Tracy Rocker’s prime prodigy while he was at Auburn. The Kenny Britt issues make a WR a more distinct possibility.
9. Dallas Cowboys: Tyron Smith, T, USC.
I can see them taking JJ Watt or Cam Jordan here, but the Cowboys are one of the more transparent draft teams and they’ve not hidden their admiration for the Trojan right tackle.
10. Washington Redskins: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama.
He could very well be gone, and I do think there are legs to the Jake Locker speculation. Mark Ingram wouldn’t surprise me either.
11. Houston Texans: Ryan Kerrigan, DE/OLB, Purdue.
A little birdie tells me they are looking up, but Kerrigan makes a nice consolation prize.
12. Minnesota Vikings: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska.
Not their biggest need, but in a pass-happy division you can never have too many quality DBs.
13. Detroit Lions: Anthony Castonzo, T, Boston College.
Keeping Matt Stafford healthy is an imperative, and Castonzo fared quite well against the top pass rushers in this draft class.
14. St. Louis Rams: Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois.
Steve Spagnuolo can never have too many linemen, and Liuget has the most dynamic upside of any tackle in this draft.
15. Miami Dolphins: Mike Pouncey, G/C, Florida.
Miami has perhaps the weakest G-C-G package in the league, and no RB they could draft would make more of an impact than upgrading the interior line. Even though Bill Parcells is no longer officially involved, that is his way of thinking.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars: Aldon Smith, OLB, Missouri.
Great athlete that immediately brings juice to one of the most anemic pass rushes in NFL history.
17. New England Patriots (from OAK): JJ Watt, DE, Wisconsin.
He’s a Parcells kind of player, and the fact he can still play some TE a la Mike Vrabel is no doubt alluring. As always, they’re much more likely to trade back than actually use this pick.
18. San Diego Chargers: Cameron Jordan, DE, California.
Very good candidate to trade back, as the team had the #1 offense and #1 defense and have no major holes.
19. New York Giants: Aaron Williams, S, Texas.
His people have sold the position change angle very effectively. Mark Ingram or Pouncey (if he falls) both make sense here too.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson.
Despite all the scary medical reports, it only takes one team to take the chance. The Bucs are desperate enough for a pass rush to be that team. Aqib Talib’s legal issues might make them even more desperate to get a corner.
21. Kansas City Chiefs: Phil Taylor, NT, Baylor.
He’s a great deal like Shaun Rogers, a guy that DC Romeo Crennel had great success with in Cleveland.
22. Indianapolis Colts: Derek Sherrod, T, Mississippi State.
When Bill Polian comes out and says the OL needs to get better, it’s going to be addressed early and perhaps often.
23. Philadelphia Eagles: Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado.
There are some off-field issues, but the Eagles have had pretty strong success taking chances on talent like him. He and Asante Samuel would make an exceptional corner tandem.
24. New Orleans Saints: Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa.
Clayborn brings more flexibility to Gregg Williams’ attacking defense. He’s ideal for a two-gap scheme.
25. Seattle Seahawks: Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas.
Just a guess, Seahawks fans, just a guess...
26. Baltimore Ravens: Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State.
Sticking to my guns that Heyward is an Ozzie Newsome kind of guy, and I like the need/availability marriage to boot.
27. Atlanta Falcons: Randall Cobb, WR, Kentucky.
GM Tom Dimitroff has to get more dynamic weapons for Matt Ryan. Cobb can turn short passes into long gains and can also operate out of the backfield.
28. New England Patriots: Danny Watkins, G, Baylor.
He’s ready to start right away, and he’s got the ability to play either guard or tackle. The Pats have more questions than answers up front right now.
29. Chicago Bears: Marvin Austin, DT, North Carolina.
He fills the giant hole that Tommie Harris left behind, and the Bears believe their locker room can handle his questionable character.
30. New York Jets: Muhammad Wilkerson, DE, Temple.
He dominated the MAC and has the mentality that Rex Ryan will love.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers: Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame.
Nate Solder wouldn’t surprise me at all, but I think Rudolph will go in the first.
32. Green Bay Packers: Akeem Ayers, LB, UCLA.
He's not for everybody, but putting a playmaker with his cover skills opposite Clay Matthews will scare the hell out of opposing offenses.
