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from:realgm
This is one strange draft, easily the most difficult to forecast in any of the seven years I've done this professionally.
I have talked to coaches and scouts as recently as yesterday and they aren't certain what their teams are going to do, and that includes a couple of teams picking in the top 10.
That means this edition is fraught with lots of semi-educated guesswork, more on the "guesswork" than in previous years. Any pundit that tells you they did any differently is lying. I mixed in a couple of trades that I think are very likely, more in order to marry a player and a slot than a team and a player.
My goal is to correctly forecast the player to the slot; I honestly would prefer to do a mock where there are no teams listed and I'm just picking the players and slots straight up.
I'll be actively participating in the draft day thread on the RealGM NFL Draft message board, and I'll provide a daily reaction summary here as well. Enjoy the draft!
Round 1
1. Carolina Panthers: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn.
Incredible risk, incredible potential reward. Unlike most years this pick is not set in stone, but I understand it's written in some pretty bold ink.
2. Denver Broncos: Von Miller, OLB/DE, Texas A&M.
A lot of people who would be in better position to "know" what Denver is doing here are saying the pick is Miller and not Dareus. I'm not going to argue it, and I applaud them if this is in fact the pick, as I have Miller rated much higher than Dareus.
3. Buffalo Bills: Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama.
Buffalo is noted for going best overall talent available, and Dareus fits that bill here on many draft boards. I have heard rumblings of Blaine Gabbert, but that strikes me as smoke.
4. Cincinnati Bengals: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia.
If Dareus is on the board this becomes a very tough choice, but assuming he's gone I'm very confident A.J. Green is the pick. Of course Mike Brown is prone to throwing his coaching staff the occasional curveball, and I know some in the building there that believe Brown has an unhealthy infatuation with Nick Fairley. I'm not saying, just saying...
5. Arizona Cardinals: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU.
The best remaining talent on the board and a legit playmaker, which blends nicely with the aggressive defense. This slot will generate a lot of trade interest, and the Texans are a candidate willing to move up. I'll paint a bold picture here: Houston trades up and takes Peterson here, and the Cardinals use the extra ammo to trade for Kevin Kolb once players can be dealt.
6. Cleveland Browns: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn.
Switching to a 4-3 defense means they need fresh talent up front, and Fairley can be a dynamic force inside. While in Cleveland over the weekend I got the sense the Browns are looking to go against conventional wisdom here, and picking Fairley accomplishes that goal. Julio Jones and Peterson (if still on the board) cannot be ruled out, and A.J. Green would trump all of them.
7. San Francisco 49ers: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri.
This is as much a player/slot match as it is a team/player marriage. They do need a QB and Gabbert has the intelligence and athleticism that Coach Harbaugh can work with. Cam Jordan wouldn't surprise me if the Niners decide to sit out the QB madness and go after Carson Palmer or Kevin Kolb.
8. Tennessee Titans: Jake Locker, QB, Washington.
I think this is a monumental reach, but desperate times call for desperate measures in Tennessee. If he ever learns to drop back properly and complete more than 54% of his passes, he's worth it for the Titans. I do strongly believe that Nick Fairley will be the pick if he's on the board, but in this case he is gone.
9. Dallas Cowboys: Tyron Smith, T, USC.
This is the easiest team/player pick to forecast. I have higher confidence in this selection than any of the above. They might be able to slide back a few spots and still get Smith if someone gets nervous about the run on QBs.
10. St. Louis Rams (from WAS): Julio Jones, WR, Alabama.
St. Louis trades #14 overall, #78 overall, and a 2012 2nd round pick to Washington to move up and select Jones. They get Sam Bradford the #1 target he desperately needs to propel this offense forward.
11. Houston Texans: Aldon Smith, DE/OLB, Missouri.
I've talked to several people with the Texans and every one of them has told me the team likes Smith and has for some time. If the trade up goes down and Arizona is here, they take Robert Quinn.
12. Minnesota Vikings: Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson.
A little birdie tipped me off to this one late Wed. night. I don’t really know whether to trust that bird, but Bowers does make sense. I do think Jake Locker will be the pick if he’s somehow still available, and Corey Liuget would not surprise me either.
13. Detroit Lions: Anthony Castonzo, T, Boston College.
I’ve had this as the Lions projection pretty much since October; why change now? Both Amukamara and Jimmy Smith are very much in play. I strongly believe the Da’Quan Bowers talk is all smoke, and he’s gone in this scenario anyways. Sleeper pick: Mike Pouncey.
14. Washington Redskins (from STL): Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama.
Surprise! I don’t want to let the trade scenarios spiral out of control here, but given the situation here I would expect someone to be nervous enough about Miami taking Ingram that they trade up and get him here, with the Skins sliding back further and taking Christian Ponder. If the Rams keep this pick, I see Prince Amukamara or Corey Liuget.
15. Miami Dolphins: Mike Pouncey, C/G, Florida.
I’ve had this for the last couple of editions and I’m going to stick with it. GM Jeff Ireland and Coach Tony Sparano don’t have the time or job security to take a QB here, though I suspect Ryan Mallett will be very tempting here.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars: Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purude.
GM Gene Smith goes with the “better safe than sorry†strategy and gets a reliable starter instead of swinging for a higher risk/reward prospect like Jimmy Smith or Robert Quinn.
17. New England Patriots (from OAK): Cameron Jordan, DE, California.
As with every New England pick, this is more about player/slot than team/player. I can see Jordan going much higher than this. J.J. Watt is my stab at their Plan B.
18. San Diego Chargers: JJ Watt, DE, Wisconsin.
Another 3-4 end, a chronic in-demand commodity, goes to a team that doesn’t necessarily have it as a primary need. I’ve heard Watt’s stock is sliding but too many people with that need like Watt for him to fall very far.
19. New York Giants: Gabe Carimi, T, Wisconsin.
I’m reading between some lines from certain people who are most certainly in the know, but I’m surprisingly confident in this pick relative to many of the above. Anything other than an offensive lineman would surprise me very much.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina.
Quinn is one of the big draft-day fallers, as concerns about the brain tumor he faced in HS is a greater concern with the unfortunate news about Marcus Cannon (who would have been a 1st rounder). Pricne Amukamara--the other great faller--has to be a strong candidate here as well, given the Aqib Talib legal fiasco.
21. Kansas City Chiefs: Danny Watkins, G, Baylor.
He fits their style, their profile, and one of their primary needs. I’ve had Phil Taylor slotted here several times and that still seems very viable.
22. Indianapolis Colts: Derek Sherrod, T, Mississippi State.
The best of the remaining blind side pass protectors. When Bill Polian says the OL needs help, he’s going to get some OL help.
23. Cincinnati Bengals (from PHI): Andy Dalton, QB, TCU.
Cincinnati trades #35 overall and a 2012 1st round pick to Philadelphia to move up and take Dalton. If not Cincy, then someone. If Philly keeps the pick, I strongly believe it will be Jimmy Smith.
24. New Orleans Saints: Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State.
Two reasons for this speculation: his dad was a beloved Saints icon, and Heyward put on one of the most dominant bowl game performances ever in the Sugar Bowl, which happens to be played in the Saints’ home stadium.
25. Seattle Seahawks: Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas.
Nothing more than a hunch, but I do strongly suspect the rocket-armed Mallett goes in the 1st round; too much potential to outweigh the off-field concerns. Good spot for a trade here as well, though I’m not forecasting one in this mock.
26. Baltimore Ravens: Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois.
He can fill the need at DE for the Ravens, but I believe it’s just as likely that the Bears maneuver to acquire him here. Chicago got burned a year ago when the player they really wanted (Morgan Burnett) came off the board just before they were going to get him, and they’re not going to suffer that fate again.
27. Minnesota Vikings (from ATL): Christian Ponder, QB, Florida State.
Minnesota trades #43 overall and a 2012 1st round pick to Atlanta to move up and select Ponder. He is NFL-ready for a team that still thinks it can contend right now. If ATL keeps the pick, I like Kyle Rudolph or Phil Taylor.
28. Philadelphia Eagles (from NE via CIN): Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska.
Philadelphia trades #35 overall (acquired in an earlier trade) and a 2012 2nd round pick to New England to move up and take the draft’s biggest loser in Amukamara, who many had projected as a top 10 pick as recently as last week. I’m pretty confident he is going to slide, though perhaps not this far. And yes, the trade scenario here is wildly out of control.
29. Chicago Bears: Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor.
This presumes they don’t trade up to take Corey Liuget. Taylor provides a very nice, though different, kind of fallback plan. Sleeper pick: Akeem Ayers.
30. New York Jets: Marvin Austin, DT, North Carolina.
Austin sure seems like a Rex Ryan kind of guy -- unapologetically brash, very talented but probably not as skilled as he thinks. He could be a fantastic fit here. Muhammad Wilkerson would not be a surprise here at all.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers: Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa.
32. Green Bay Packers: Akeem Ayers, LB, UCLA
Round 2
Beyond this point I am much more interested in correctly slotting the players with the draft spot and not necessarily the team. I could go through and project trades, but that's an arduous and largely futile task. Remember, think player/spot and not team/player.
33. New England Patriots (from CAR): Muhammad Wilkerson, DE, Temple
34. Buffalo Bills: Nate Solder, T, Colorado
35. New England Patriots (from CIN via PHI): Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh.
As I said at #28, the trade thingy spiraled out of control here. As I also said above, from here on down think player/slot and not necessarily team/player.
36. Denver Broncos: Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado
37. Cleveland Browns: Torrey Smith, WR, Maryland
38. Arizona Cardinals: Brandon Harris, CB, Miami FL
39. Tennessee Titans: Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame
40. Dallas Cowboys: Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State
41. Washington Redskins: Mikel Leshoure, RB, Illinois
42. Houston Texans: Aaron Williams, DB, Texas
43. Atlanta Falcons (from MIN): Randall Cobb, WR, Kentucky. From the earlier trade.
44. Detroit Lions: Martez Wilson, LB, Illinois
45. San Francisco 49ers: Ras-I Dowling, CB, Virginia
46. Denver Broncos (from MIA): Jarvis Jenkins, DT, Clemson
47. St. Louis Rams: Rahim Moore, S, UCLA
48. Oakland Raiders: Jurrell Casey, DT, USC
49. Jacksonville Jaguars: Colin Kaepernick, QB, Nevada
50. San Diego Chargers: Brooks Reed, DE/OLB, Arizona
51. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Ben Ijalana, T, Villanova
52. New York Giants: Ryan Williams, RB, Virginia Tech
53. Indianapolis Colts: Bruce Carter, LB, North Carolina
54. Philadelphia Eagles: Justin Houston, LB, Georgia
55. Kansas City Chiefs: Leonard Hankerson, WR, Miami FL
56. New Orleans Saints: James Carpenter, T, Alabama
57. Seattle Seahawks: Titus Young, WR, Boise State
58. Baltimore Ravens: Marcus Gilchrist, DB, Clemson
59. Atlanta Falcons: Sam Acho, DE/LB, Texas
60. New England Patriots: Ricky Stanzi, QB, Iowa
61. San Diego Chargers (from NYJ): Allen Bailey, DE, Miami FL
62. Chicago Bears: Orlando Franklin, T, Miami FL
63. Pittsburgh Steelers: Johnny Patrick, CB, Louisville
64. Green Bay Packers: Alex Green, RB, Hawaii
Round 3
65. Carolina Panthers: Terrell McClain, DT, South Florida
66. Cincinnati Bengals: Demarco Murray, RB, Oklahoma
67. Denver Broncos: Lance Kendricks, TE, Wisconsin
68. Buffalo Bills: Demarcus Van Dyke, CB, Miami FL
69. Arizona Cardinals: James Brewer, T, Indiana
70. Cleveland Browns: Davon House, CB, New Mexico State
71. Dallas Cowboys: Kelvin Sheppard, LB, LSU
72. New Orleans Saints (from WAS): Will Rackley, G, Lehigh
73. Houston Texans: Kenrick Ellis, DT, Hampton
74. New England Patriots (from MIN): Dontay Moch, LB, Nevada
75. Detroit Lions: Daniel Thomas, RB, Kansas State
76. San Francisco 49ers: Clint Boling, OL, Georgia
77. Tennessee Titans: Christian Ballard, DE, Iowa
78. Washington Redskins (from STL): Rodney Hudson, G/C, Florida State
79. Miami Dolphins: Edmund Gates, WR, Abilene Christian
80. Jacksonville Jaguars: Chris Conte, S, California
81. Oakland Raiders: Stefen Wisniewski, C, Penn State
82. San Diego Chargers: Kendall Hunter, RB, Oklahoma State
83. New York Giants: Jordan Cameron, TE, USC
84. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Curtis Brown, CB, Texas
85. Philadelphia Eagles: Drake Nevis, DT, LSU
86. Kansas City Chiefs: Tandon Doss, WR, Indiana
87. Indianapolis Colts: Jerrel Jernigan, WR, Troy
88. New Orleans Saints: K.J. Wright, LB, Mississippi State
89. San Diego Chargers (from SEA): Virgil Green, TE, Nevada
90. Baltimore Ravens: Greg Little, WR, North Carolina
91. Atlanta Falcons: Cedric Thornton, DT, Southern Arkansas
92. New England Patriots: Quinton Carter, S, Oklahoma
93. Baltimore Ravens (from CHI): Jaiquawn Jarrett, S, Temple
94. New York Jets: Jason Pinkston, OL, Pittsburgh
95. Pittsburgh Steelers: DaNorris Searcy, DB, North Carolina
96. Green Bay Packers: Chris Carter, LB, Fresno State
97. Carolina Panthers (comp pick): Josh Thomas, CB, Buffalo
Round 4
98. Carolina Panthers: Mason Foster, LB, Washington
99. Seattle Seahawks (from NE via DEN): Casey Matthews, LB, Oregon
100. Buffalo Bills: Rob Housler, TE, Florida Atlantic
101. Cincinnati Bengals: Brandon Hogan, CB, West Virginia
102. Cleveland Browns: Luke Stocker, TE, Tennessee
103. Arizona Cardinals: Chykie Brown, CB, Texas
104. Philadelphia Eagles (from WAS): Shane Vereen, RB, California
105. Houston Texans: Colin McCarthy, LB, Miami FL
106. Minnesota Vikings: Rashad Carmichael, CB, Virginia Tech
107. Detroit Lions: Akeem Dent, LB, Georgia
108. San Francisco 49ers: Chris Culliver, S, South Carolina
109. Tennessee Titans: Shareece Wright, CB, USC
110. Dallas Cowboys: Tyler Sash, S, Iowa
111. Miami Dolphins: Delone Carter, RB, Syracuse
112. St. Louis Rams: Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Oregon State
113. Oakland Raiders: Chimdi Chekwa, CB, Ohio State
114. Jacksonville Jaguars: Buster Skrine, CB, Chattanooga
115. San Francisco 49ers (from SD): Joseph Barksdale, T, LSU
116. Tampa Bay Bucs: Ross Homan, LB, Ohio State
117. New York Giants: Vincent Brown, WR, San Diego State
118. Kansas City Chiefs: Pernell McPhee, DE, Mississippi State
119. Indianapolis Colts: Alex Linnekohl, OL, Oregon State
120. Philadelphia Eagles: Jalil Brown, CB, Colorado
121. Jacksonville Jaguars (from NO): Cecil Shorts, WR, Mount Union
122. Buffalo Bills (from SEA): Kendrick Burney, CB, North Carolina
123. Baltimore Ravens: Denarius Moore, WR, Tennessee
124. Atlanta Falcons: Roy Helu Jr., RB, Nebraska
125. New England Patriots: Andrew Jackson, OL, Fresno State
126. New York Jets: Niles Paul, WR, Nebraska
127. Chicago Bears: Taiwan Jones, RB, Eastern Washington
128. Pittsburgh Steelers: Jah Reid, T, Central Florida
129. Green Bay Packers: Anthony Gaitor, CB, Florida International
130. Tennessee Titans (comp pick): Mario Harvey, LB, Marshall
131. Green Bay Packers (comp pick): Greg Salas, WR, Hawaii
Mr. Irrelevant: Isa Abdul-El Quddus, S, Fordham
