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http://joeposnanski.si.com/2011/10/11/the-worst-contracts-in-baseball/
Personally, I think it's pretty accurate although I'd take Teixeria off the list and replace him with Bay or Burnett. I'd also move Howard down a few spots, maybe around 6 or 7. I think his contract is bad, but not worse than some of the others. He had one off year, and I think people are jumping to conclusions too fast.
So, what do you guys think of the list?(Contracts are based on how much is remaining)
1. Vernon Wells, three years, $63 million
I love that in order to get their hands on this death-defying contract, the Angels traded away Mike Napoli, who ended up getting traded back into their division, where he might have been the most valuable player on the division-winning Texas Rangers. There is just layer upon layer of madness here.
To be fair: Wells has shown the ability to lift his game during even-year seasons, and he does have two of those left on this deal. But let’s not kid anybody. Wells, 32, had a .248 on-base percentage in 2011. That’s two four eight. The last qualifying outfielder to have an OBP that low? I’m sure you already know: George Barclay. Yeah. Oh, wait, you didn’t know that? Right, that was in 1904. Wells’ was the lowest on-base percentage for an outfielder in more than 100 years. Wells, from what I’ve heard, is a good guy, and people love having him around the clubhouse, and he’s had some superb years. But this is the worst current contract in baseball, and perhaps the worst ever (it was originally a seven-year, $126 million deal).
2. A-Rod, six years, $153 million
I could be wrong, certainly. He looked good enough in spring training this year that some people were actually predicting an MVP-type season from the guy. But I’ve thought for a couple of years, and think even more now, that it looks all downhill from here. I’ve been on record for a while now as saying that A-Rod will not set the all-time home run record (he needs 134 more).
3. Carl Crawford, six years, $128 million
Crawford (.255/.289/.405 in his Boston debut) could rebound. You might even say that he SHOULD rebound. But at the moment, because of the big number tagged to it, this contract surpasses the Zito debacle, the Soriano debacle, the Lackey debacle, even the Dunn debacle. There was something about this deal that bugged me from the start. Oh, don’t misunderstand, I thought Crawford would be a dynamic player for the Red Sox — heck, I named the guy the 26th-best player in baseball in my preseason rankings.
No, what bothered me was that Crawford has always been more EXCITING than GOOD. This is a sports theme I’ve been thinking a lot about lately. Ask yourself this: Which statement is truer?
1. Michael Vick is a great quarterback.
2. Michael Vick is an exciting quarterback.
Both statements might be true. But I would think that the second statement rings truer. I’ve taken some heat from Justin Verlander fans, and I think this point applies to him, too. I think Verlander is a great pitcher. And I think Verlander is an exciting pitcher — all those strikeouts, the 100-mph fastballs in the late innings, the amazing breaking balls, are you kidding? Thrilling. And I think the thrilling part of the equation sometimes puffs up the great part.
Carl Crawford has always been a thrilling player. He hits triples. He steals bases. But we’re talking about a left fielder with a lifetime .333 on-base percentage and a lifetime .441 slugging percentage. I remember when I was going out to buy my first car, they showed me all the extras you could get on a Ford Escort. Sunroof. Leather seats. Automatic locks and windows*. And even then it struck me: No matter how you dress up this car, it’s still a Ford Escort. I don’t think Crawford is a Ford Escort. But his lifetime on-base and slugging percentage match up frighteningly close to those of Aaron Rowand and Eric Hinske. So you could argue that he’s Aaron Rowand with a sunroof.
*Yeah, there weren’t as many cool gadgets for cars then; automatic locks and windows felt futuristic.
4. Ryan Howard, five years, $125 million
If he can get healthy, and if the Phillies keep him in the middle of the lineup, he will keep driving in 100 runs. And maybe that will postpone the inevitable realization that Ryan Howard is becoming a less and less useful player all the time.
5. Barry Zito, two years, $46 million
The Giants are paying down this contract, which was originally for seven years and $126 million — they’re still upside-down on the deal, but there will come a time when they pay it off. It’s amazing to think that time is still two or three years from now (Zito has an option year in 2014).
People often say — I often say — that Scott Boras does a great job for his clients. And it’s undeniably true. But by “great job” what we really mean is “he will get his client more money.” That’s a perfectly reasonable definition of what you want in an agent; you want someone who will get you the most money. But, not to go all Jerry Maguire here, isn’t there something more? It’s interesting how many Boras clients seem to be in miserable spots. A-Rod appears doomed to declining years of boos. Carlos Beltran didn’t exactly fit in New York. Zito, who’s 33 now, was on the decline when he signed this deal anyway, but he seems entirely destroyed by the pressures of his contract. There are a lot of stories like that. I’m not saying that anyone should feel sorry for a player who will make all that money. I’m just saying that there probably are other things that are important too.
6. John Lackey, three years, $45.75 million
In some ways, this contract might be even worse than the Zito deal, because the Giants at least have made their peace with the idea that Barry Zito will never again be an effective pitcher for them. The Red Sox haven’t crossed that bridge yet, and before they cross it there will likely be a lot more pain for everyone. Lackey had a very difficult year off the field, and so there’s hope that with a fresh start at spring training, with his mind refocused, he might still be at least a fourth or fifth starter for them.
But looking back, Lackey wasn’t an especially healthy or great pitcher in the two years BEFORE the Red Sox signed him — he threw 163 and 176 innings in those two years — and he turns 33 this month, and last year was so miserable in so many ways that the Red Sox may be forced to just eat this contract. And that will be hard, because of the No. 3 guy on this list.
7. Alfonso Soriano, three years, $54 million
According to Baseball Reference WAR, Alfonso Soriano actually contributed more defensively (0.7 dWAR) than offensively (0.6 oWAR) in 2011. And I think that pretty much says it all.
8. Adam Dunn, three years, $44 million
I’m making this crazy call: I think Adam Dunn will have a rebound season in 2012. In some ways this is a pretty easy call, because it is all but impossible for him to be worse than he was in 2011. People years from now will look back at Adam Dunn’s 2011 season and wonder: “Did someone really hit .159 in Major League Baseball?”* The man slugged .277. Adam Dunn!
*Dunn — and I don’t know if this was done on purpose, but I suspect it was — did not get the necessary 502 plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. You know how many he got? Right: 496. That way he won’t show up when you look up qualifying players.
This isn’t unprecedented — well, the batting average actually is unprecedented, at least in modern times — but the collapse of a power hitter in his early 30s is hardly new. Richie Sexson just stopped hitting. Gorman Thomas just stopped hitting. Carlos Pena just stopped hitting. And so on. All signs point to Dunn being unplayable from here on out. And that’s probably where the smart money goes, but I just have this feeling that he will rebound a bit. I think that over the last couple of years he has lost his once-impeccable plate discipline, and he’s swinging at pitches outside the strike zone, which is spurring pitchers to simply not throw him strikes. I suspect that Dunn, who’s still only 31, will work hard this off-season, watching video, working on his swing, and, well, maybe I just feel for the guy, but I think he makes a moderate comeback in 2012.
Which is to say I think he will hit at least .200, if given the chance.
9. Jayson Werth, six years, $116 million
A terrible contract, of course, but I have it this low because, well, I’m not sure what the Nationals really could have expected when they signed Werth in the first place. He was a perfectly good player in Philadelphia who had a very good 2010 season, mainly because he killed it at home. In a new park, with new surroundings, his slugging percentage dropped almost 150 points. I suspect that Werth, 32, will bounce back and have two or three serviceable-to-good years for the Nationals before he’s done. Then again he might not — the records of similar batters through age 32 (Jeff Hammonds, Trot Nixon) do not tell a happy tale.
This was one of those contracts that was terrible when it was signed and only figures to look worse every year.
10. Mark Teixeira, five years, $117.5 million
A lot of Yankees fans have been focusing on the decline of A-Rod because, well, that’s an easy one to wrap the mind around. But, honestly, I’d be nervous about Teixeira too. Sure, it was only five games, but he really looked old during the playoff series with Detroit. He will turn 32 in April, he’s got five years left on his contract, and he, too, seems to be in clear and present decline. Over the last two years, Teixeira has hit .239/.326/.452 on the road. Overall, he has hit .252 over the last two years, and his .487 slugging percentage is about 50 points off his career number, and ranks eighth among first baseman over that span.
He’s still a good player. Hey, he hit 39 homers in 2011. He’s a fine fielder. If he stays right here, plays like this, it will be disappointing, but not unmanageable, for the Yankees. But, yeah, there’s a reason they call it regression. In an era when many of the best teams load up with a truly great hitter at first base — Detroit with Miggy; St. Louis (for now) with Pujols; Milwaukee (for now) with Fielder; Boston with Gonzalez, and so on — the Yankees have Teixeira for a long time. It has become a familiar Yankees story: They’ll be hoping for someone to fight off the years. Five more of those years.
Personally, I think it's pretty accurate although I'd take Teixeria off the list and replace him with Bay or Burnett. I'd also move Howard down a few spots, maybe around 6 or 7. I think his contract is bad, but not worse than some of the others. He had one off year, and I think people are jumping to conclusions too fast.
