Astros Core...

CoachAF

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...A look to the future.
 
The Astros are in the middle of a great (and hopefully long) playoff run. While at Game 1, my buddies and I had the discussion of who should be part of the core that the Astros lock up long-term. Most of their youthful players are in arbitration or almost there. Here's what they are looking at in order of when their final year under contract would be:
 
 
Dallas Keuchel - 2018
Marwin Gonzalez - 2018
 
These two are tough ones. I have a feeling that the market for Keuchel could get big. If the Astros don't sign him to an extension this off-season, I don't think he will be an Astro in 2019. That said, I let him walk after next year. I don't ever trust pitchers with long-term deals. We have gotten way more value than any of us expected already. I just see the Correa/Altuve deals coming up and think we need to pinch our pennies. Marwin will be an interesting case. If he puts up another solid year, I think Reddick's deal (4/50) would be a good comp, maybe even more. I am on the fence here. He has been a big part of our success this year, but I am still hesitant to pull the trigger on a multi-year deal. I wait until after next season to commit to Marwin.
 
Jose Altuve - 2019
 
 He took his pay cut (foolishly) and is going to be looking to cash in. So the question becomes his fair value. I would go as long as 8 years, but would try to make it 6. He will be 29, close to 30. One of his main skill sets (speed) will be on the decline. His power and batting average should maintain well, but geez. This is a tougher call than I thought. In a perfect world we keep Altuve/Correa. I just don't know how we can afford both. If we signed MarGo, I can see the argument for letting Altuve walk. In the end, I sign him to a 6 year / 200 million dollar deal. It's gonna cost more though. Maybe 6 years / 250 million? I think that is closer to what it will cost. Springer is coming up next...
 
George Springer - 2020
 
This is the one that I catch the most flack for, but I let Springer walk, or even trade him. With Tucker flying through the minors and guys like Fisher already in the majors, we have the depth in the outfield to replace him. It sucks, but I think he will be in a large market once he hits FA. The only caveat here is if we don't re-sign Altuve, then we can take that money and give it to Springer. 
 
 
Carlos Correa - 2021
Ken Giles - 2021
Lance McCullers - 2021
 
Forget the pitchers. McCullers might not even have an arm by this point and relievers are replaceable. Correa is the man. I think they lock up Correa when they re-sign Altuve. This one will hurt. All eyes are on Harper and what he will get. Correa will only be 27 when he hits the market! I think a 10 year deal is what he asks for, and I think he may get it (especially if Harper does). My prediction is a 10 year / 350 million dollar extension. This guy will be worth every single penny. 
 
Alex Bregman - 2022
 
This will be an interesting case. Breg is so far off, that there are many variables in play. If he just continued his production from this year, he'd be in for a big payday. His modest 3.8 WAR this season earned a value of 30.1 million dollars. It's not unthinkable to say he could be a 5+ WAR guy by the time he hits FA. In that case, He could be looking at more than 20 million a year easily. I want to keep him so badly. He has that old school "it factor". I would try to extend him with a 7 year / 200 million dollar deal.
 
 
The Astros don't have the market to hold more than 2 big contracts. I think they get to choose 2 of the core and find guys to supplement around them. Correa is the one I go all-in on and don't look back. The Astros then have to look at an aging Altuve and a Bregman and make up their minds who to invest in. Personally I go with Bregman to free up cash in the meantime for guys to fill in gaps
 
 
My final vote would be this: 
 
Marwin Gonzalez - 4 years / 48 million (12 million AAV)
Carlos Correa - 10 years / 350 million  (35 million AAV)
Alex Bregman - 7 years / 200 million    (29 million AAV)
 
That is a 76 million dollar investment in 3 players which still gives them about that same amount to spread around to other guys. I am not sold on MarGo long-term, but I do feel like his versatility can give us enough flexibility to say goodbye to an Altuve or a Springer. There's value in that. 
 
 

Ken Giles - 2021
Lance McCullers - 2021
 

Giantmetfan07

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This was a great read. Definitely a great idea, looking at young teams and trying to speculate who stays, who goes, and at what value. Also informative, I'm not that faniliar with the Astros players and what years they hit arbitration, so this provided some needed insight.

I pretty much agree with most of this - though I don't think Giles would cost much. Lock up a solid late-inning reliever while you can. And their biggest challenge will be Altuve and Correa, I'll be surprised if they retain both. It's going to cost a ton. Might come down to the length of Altuve's deal - under 7, they might be comfortabke giving Correa 8-10 years.

I might try something similar with the Mets
 

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