gonna be lazy here, but the average value of a Win for a player is 8 million dollars. Altuve has averaged 6.7 WAR the last 4 years of his career. So let's be conservative here and say that he averages 4 WAR until his age 30 season (the next 3 years) and then averages 2 WAR for the remainder of the extension (the next 4 years). That would give him a total of 20 WAR which would come out to 160 million dollars in value. That's right on the bubble (slightly less) than what the Astros will pay him during that time, roughly 163 million dollars.
Now that is a very conservative projection for him. I think a more likely progression would be
2018: 7 WAR
2019: 6 WAR
2020: 5 WAR
2021: 4 WAR
2022: 3 WAR
2023: 3 WAR
2024: 3 WAR
Total: 31 WAR for a total of 248 million dollars in value.
I think there is no doubt that the Astros get their money back on this deal. The only drawback is how will this deal affect their ability to lock in other guys (Correa, Springer) in the future.
You do realize that the price of WAR has changed considerably as the dollar value went up years and years? My point is that we now pay too much for WAR than we used to, which leads to being overpriced. In other words, I still see it overpriced. Nothing taking away from Altuve, he was great, but he is now overpriced.
And I highly doubt he hits 7 WAR and then 6 WAR the next two seasons. Sure, he had 7 WAR and 8 WAR the last two, but years before he wasn't as high and it's hard to hit consistently at the level he's been hitting consecutively (unless you're Mike Trout). That being said, even if I'm wrong and he keeps it up, the $/WAR has been inflated and rising considerably.
You can't really predict WAR in the case where you have... WAR is too changeable of a stat. It's just not that easy to say he'll make 31 WAR.
Edited by PWNdroia, 18 March 2018 - 05:02 PM.
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