The Fister versus Porcello Debate

PWNdroia

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I'm going to be a jerk, okay?  I came back just to revive this topic and thread because people think my ideas are so stupid.
 
bosoxlover12 said:
It's a real shame Pwndroia left once the whole Fister v Porcello argument has finally ended
 
Fister is straight garbage, and Porcello is not DFA worthy
 
The debate has ended?  Are you sure about that?
 
You are right about Porcello not being DFA worthy.  I was wrong to say that.  Porcello, would, however, be a good mop up man, 4th or 5th starter, or long man in the bullpen.  He is useful there.  As a #2 starter, that doesn't cut it.
 
Now let's compare Fister and Porcello this year, not just their career ERAs (which, mind you, Fister has a way better career).
 
Rick Porcello- 4.45 ERA, 4.41 FIP, Contact is 4 years, 82.5 million
 
Doug Fister- 4.53 ERA (going down after tonight), 4.45 FIP, signed for 1 year, 1.75 million
 
If Fister is trash, then Porcello is right there with him.  Funny how their stats are so similar as of late (albeit Porcello has the much larger sample size), yet Porcello is making about $18 million more to produce the same/similar results.  One of the main reasons I'm so harsh on Porcello is because of this huge price tag where he makes monumental money for such average results.  It's not as bad as the Pablo Sandoval deal, but it's pretty bad what we pay him to produce.  Think about it.  Ben Cherington lowballs Jon Lester, who's up there with aces and has World Series experience, but he flashes his wallet to land Porcello.  
 
Also, I will mention, if you look at performance the last month exclusively, Fister completely outranks Porcello.  His difference in ERA and FIP has decreased dramatically, whereas Porcello has been pretty consistently average all year long.
 
So many people did not want to put trust in Fister.  Everyone said he was done and that he's "trash."  Well, he still has way better stuff than Porcello will ever have, and when he's on, he's on.  No one wanted to give him a chance just because they thought he was washed up yet, they make Porcello sound like a great pitcher when he's been average most of his career. Fister had some pretty awful starts, I'll give you that, but he's had some brilliant starts as well, and has been increasingly better as the season rolls on.  He has pitched well against great teams, including the Indians, which he pitched well 2/3 starts when they've basically owned every other starter in our rotation (including Sale).
 
Fister is the type of pitcher who is all or nothing, either really good or really bad, but Porcello will always be average.  He hasn't had a higher ceiling in his career.  So, take it or leave it, this definitely deserves resurfacing.
 
Okay, now that I've posted this, I'm done being a jerk and I'll leave. 
 

Pugz

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PWNdroia

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.ptt81 said:
Doug Fister for cy young?
 
 
.ptt81 said:
Doug Fister just threw a one hitter. That one hit was the first batter he faced.
 
Who would have thought?
 
 
bosoxlover12 said:
It's a real shame Pwndroia left once the whole Fister v Porcello argument has finally ended
 
Fister is straight garbage, and Porcello is not DFA worthy
 
 
bosoxlover12 said:
It doesnt matter if it was an anomaly Porcello was better last year than Fister ever has.

Thats the point were trying to make. They both suck right now too, why is it even being discussed?
 
 
Teagz said:
Porcello's 2016 was a complete anomaly. He never was that guy and he's still not that guy. Fister had a 4 year stretch where he was actually good (where Porcello has not), but he's washed now. I really don't ever see him repeating his 2011-2014 success ever again.
 
 
.ptt81 said:
Fister has done nothing to lead me to believe we should have any confidence in him.
 
Sure Holt should have caught the popup in the third, but he's still not a good pitcher.
 
Do I even need to respond?
 
I'm not sold that Fister is in any way the best pitcher we have, but he's better than Porcello.  They should just move Porcello to the bullpen.  Don't even start him in the playoffs.  The guy gives up a homerun every time he pitches on the mound.
 

PWNdroia

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Well obvious brainwashing didn't work, because I'm back and still believing in what I said.  I didn't bother to listen to personal attacks surrounding me because of what I said (which by the evidence here you can take it or leave it).
 
I don't need to make personal attacks to defend myself.  I just stay on topic and respond to baseball even if people attack me for being right about something and holding a belief.  Evidence is right here.
 
I'm defending myself when people try to make me look bad (not all of the selected quotes show that, but personal individuals do).
 
But go ahead, way to hold a grudge.
 

PWNdroia

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PWNdroia said:
Everyone here likes to shout and denounce my opinions.  I try to come on here and talk baseball and everyone has a problem with it, so I'm leaving.  I don't need this site to brainwash me anymore and it's not worth the effort.
 
You denounced my opinion and I denounced yours, so bring on the pettiness, I see how it is (that wasn't to be taken serious by the way, but I had to put in quotes for the many sensitive members here who read into posts way too much).
 
bosoxlover12 said:
 
 

I'm leaving.  I don't need this site to brainwash me anymore and it's not worth the effort.
 
 


 
And just so we're clear, my whole phrase was taken out of context.
 
I included the "full" phrases from everyone.
 
Taking pieces of quotes is tampering with someone's words.
 
But enough about this, let's stay on topic.  Who would you take: Doug Fister or Rick Porcello?  Honestly, that's why I'm here, so rather than attack me, answer the question at hand.
 

snipezo

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PWNdroia

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No, I'm not just going to relish only Fister's "good" starts.  I'm going to look at his horrible start today and reiterate my original argument that even though he's had some bad outings, his ceiling is much higher than Porcello's.  First of all, his ERA is still lower.  Secondly, for every bad start he's had, Fister has had brilliant starts while I cannot name a single good start Porcello had all year (maybe one or two at most).  
 
So, yes, Fister was bad tonight, but he's that Derek Lowe-esque pitcher where he either pitches really good or really bad.  Sinkerball pitchers are generally night or day, and Fister is no exception.  The only major difference is that Fister is still better than Porcello.
 
The only good thing about Porcello is that he throws strikes.  He doesn't walk a lot of guys.  That's good, but it comes at a disadvantage because he gives up more and more hits.  Even on his good starts, Porcello gives up hits.  He's not lights out like Fister has been on most of his great starts, and Porcello has given up a ton of homeruns when he's supposedly a groundball pitcher.  Porcello is as much a groundball pitcher as David Ortiz is a third baseman.
 
That being said, I'd like to sum up the whole "Fister vs. Porcello Debate" with one main image:

 
It's seemingly evident that everyone wants to avoid this topic like the plague.  The only responses to my argument have been incoherent strings of attacks toward me that have nothing to do with this argument.
 
Is everyone really that butthurt over this whole debate?  Seriously?  Or is everyone just conveniently ignoring it?  Honestly, I'd like to see what a logical rebuttal would be, rather than petty and illogical personal attacks that illicit no contextual support to the counterargument.
 

CameronCrazy06

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Everybody is conveniently ignoring it because you have shown zero semblance of reality when it comes to Porcello. For example, saying he has only one or two good starts all season. That's absolutely ridiculous.
 

PWNdroia

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CameronCrazy06 said:
Everybody is conveniently ignoring it because you have shown zero semblance of reality when it comes to Porcello. For example, saying he has only one or two good starts all season. That's absolutely ridiculous.
How is that ridiculous?
 
I'll show you his game logs:
 
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=porceri01&t=p&year=2017
 
Now look at Fister's:
 
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=fistedo01&t=p&year=2017
 
Fister's had 5 starts where he's given up 5 hits or less (out of some 12 starts) where Porcello has 7 starts where he's given up 5 hits or less (out of 30 starts).  Fister's only got two more starts than Fister where he's given up 5 hots or less, yet he's started 3 times as many games.
 
Let's look at 4 hits or less per game.  Porcello has 3 games out of 30 where he's given up 4 hits or less, compared to Fister who's had 4 games out of some 12 starts where he's given up 4 hits or less.  Again, that's three times as many starts.  It's ridiculous how hittable Porcello actually is.  He's a complete liability on the mound.
 
Fister averages giving up 5 hits a start (I added up the number of hits per 11 starts and divided by 11), whereas Porcello averages 7.33 hits per a game (over 30 starts).  Porcello nearly gives up a hit per an inning he pitches (if he were to average 7 innings a start, which I'm sure he doesn't because he's that bad).  Let's also note that this is a very large sample size for Porcello, so we're not working with small numbers here.  Porcello's pitched 186 innings and has given up 220 hits over these innings.
 
I don't have time to check other pitchers, but I bet I could check all the other #2 or #3 pitchers and I bet they'd average less hits a game than Rick Porcello.  You aren't dominant if you average giving up 7 hits a game.
 
I guess it depends what you consider a quality start, but giving up 7 hits a game does not equate to a quality start most of the time and it's not very economical.  There are several other pitchers (Fister included even though he has a smaller sample size) who are much more economical and turn in quality starts with far less hits per game.
 

CameronCrazy06

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I don't think anybody here thinks Porcello is THAT good of a pitcher, but to state he's had 2 good starts all season and then follow up by saying he's had 7 starts allowing 5 hits or less... so which 5 of those 7 starts were poor? Or were you overreacting in the first post? (yes)
 
Up until tonight, Fister had put together a good string of starts, and is making a case that he should be a member of the Red Sox' postseason rotation. But even you just said, Fister is an all or nothing pitcher these days. Is that the kind of guy you want in the playoffs?
 
I think we can both agree than Fister's 77+ IP this year aren't a big sample size. So I went back to the last 4 years of both players' careers:
 

 
Two stats to me stand out in a big way. The first is WAR, which can be flawed (especially for pitchers), but seems to indicate a large discrepancy between the two. The second is IP, which points to one of Porcello's biggest attributes: you can count on him to take the mound every fifth day. Over the course of the season, that's invaluable. Fister can't bring that -- he's averaging roughly 130 IP per season over that stretch (a number that will be upped slightly in his remaining 3-4 starts this season).
 
One stat that wasn't mentioned is WHIP: Porcello's from 2014-17 is 1.24, Fister's is 1.29. (Keep in mind that all these stats are before tonight's abomination from Fister) I thought this was interesting given how much you complained about Porcello getting hit. And for the record, the stats get worse and worse for Fister as you shorten the length of the window, as 2014 was his career year.
 
Hoping this provides more insight as to why there's people on this board who prefer Porcello.
 

PWNdroia

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CameronCrazy06 said:
I don't think anybody here thinks Porcello is THAT good of a pitcher, but to state he's had 2 good starts all season and then follow up by saying he's had 7 starts allowing 5 hits or less... so which 5 of those 7 starts were poor? Or were you overreacting in the first post? (yes)
 
Up until tonight, Fister had put together a good string of starts, and is making a case that he should be a member of the Red Sox' postseason rotation. But even you just said, Fister is an all or nothing pitcher these days. Is that the kind of guy you want in the playoffs?
 
I think we can both agree than Fister's 77+ IP this year aren't a big sample size. So I went back to the last 4 years of both players' careers:
 

 
Two stats to me stand out in a big way. The first is WAR, which can be flawed (especially for pitchers), but seems to indicate a large discrepancy between the two. The second is IP, which points to one of Porcello's biggest attributes: you can count on him to take the mound every fifth day. Over the course of the season, that's invaluable. Fister can't bring that -- he's averaging roughly 130 IP per season over that stretch (a number that will be upped slightly in his remaining 3-4 starts this season).
 
One stat that wasn't mentioned is WHIP: Porcello's from 2014-17 is 1.24, Fister's is 1.29. (Keep in mind that all these stats are before tonight's abomination from Fister) I thought this was interesting given how much you complained about Porcello getting hit. And for the record, the stats get worse and worse for Fister as you shorten the length of the window, as 2014 was his career year.
 
Hoping this provides more insight as to why there's people on this board who prefer Porcello.
 
Now this is more like it.  Very good points here.  I actually like that someone took this topic seriously, so I applaud you for that and although you have good points, I respectfully disagree with most.  Hear me out.
 
1. I did exaggerate there about Porcello only having two good starts, but did so unintentionally because I based it off memory.  That being said, most of his starts aren't anything to write home about.
 
2. You are absolutely right about Fister's health being an issue, but the one thing you didn't mention is Porcello's price tag.  Porcello costs way too much for the average stats he's producing, whereas Fister puts up similar (albeit better numbers) and is 20 times less the cost.  Fister can afford to get injured because he doesn't hurt us money-wise.  One of my biggest arguments is that Porcello is a liability because he makes $20 million a year to put up average numbers.  Thank you Ben Cherington for this.
 
3. WHIP is an important stat, but I think Porcello's WHIP is low simply because he doesn't walk guys, not because he gives up less hits.  The one good trait about Porcello is that he doesn't walk guys, but that doesn't necessarily mean you're a great pitcher just because you don't walk guys.  And again, Fister's WHIP is all or nothing, so it's really hard to use that stat to explain him.
 
4. If you use 2014 as a basis career year for Fister, then you can't ignore Porcello's 2016 campaign as a career year either.  Porcello pitched way over his head in 2016.  Fister has actually been rather consistent in his career, he just hasn't pitched 200+ innings.
 
5. Porcello will give you 200 innings a year, which is great, but he does so with average numbers.  Fister has never pitched 200 innings, so I give you the edge there.  But Fister may have had a career year in 2014, but he had multiple great years, to which Porcello really only had a couple great years.
 

PWNdroia

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Just wanted to bump this topic to clarify some things.  While I was being half serious in my approach, the whole topic was pretty much made out of irony.  I was only adding fire to those who were up in arms and claiming that I was overly praising Doug Fister.  I recognized him as a decent pitcher at the time, but never our savior (as others made it out to be).  The whole situation was blown out of proportion, so when he was actually doing well, I decided to blow it up even more.
 
In no way whatsoever was Doug Fister my first choice to pitch for this team.  I was only looking at him as an option over Porcello.  That being said, my personal opinion was blown way out of proportion by everyone else here (hence this topic).
 

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