Phil Emery: Developing late-round quarterbacks doesn't work

VikesRule · May 4, 2014

Bears General Manager Phil Emery is not a believer in taking a quarterback late in the draft.

Emery says he has studied the development of quarterbacks in the NFL and found that teams that draft quarterbacks in the late round rarely turn those players into franchise starters.

“I just did a little study. It’s very interesting,” Emery said. “That developmental theory doesn’t hold a whole lot of water. There’s entire classes of quarterbacks, since ’06, I went back and looked at from [Jay Cutler's draft class] on — when people say developmental quarterbacks, OK, so who has gotten developed? There isn’t a single quarterback after the third round since 2006 that has been a long-term starter. So you’re either developing thirds, and most of them have been wiped out of the league. So to get a quality quarterback, you’ve got to draft them high. That 2012 class is a blip on the radar that’s unusual, highly unusual.

“That 2012 class is a blip on the radar that’s unusual, highly unusual,” Emery said. “Most of the starters in this league come from the first and second round. So that’s where you need to take a quarterback. So when you talk about quarterback every year, they have to be somebody that you truly believe will beat out the second and third quarterback that you perceive on your roster. And if not, history shows that you shouldn’t make that pick.”

Source

I agree 100% with him. Everybody brings up Brady as if the exception disproves the rule. To be a successful, longterm QB you need to be drafted in the first or second round (with the rare exceptions like Wilson, Foles, and Brady). "Developmental" QBs just do not seem to ever pan out...

Hurricane Season · May 4, 2014

I don't really like the basis of this "study." QBs that are taken beyond the 4th round aren't typically guys that you draft with hopes that they can be your franchise quarterback, they're guys that you take to provide quality depth, and give your team a solid backup quarterback. (which is a lot more important than most people seem to think)

While you don't have all pro caliber players, you do have guys like Bruce Gradkowski, Matt Flynn, John Skelton, Joe Webb, Kirk Cousins, Josh Johnson, etc... Guys that have stepped in when needed, and won games in the NFL.

Barring injury, quarterbacks with talent will be noticed. If any team sees something they like in a specific QB, they usually won't fall beyond the 4th round. It's the most important position on the field.

Giantmetfan07 · May 4, 2014

I think Emery's point is there's no point in drafting a guy late unless he's your 3rd QB option. Don't draft your backup late, sign a backup instead. If you draft a guy, havehim as a 3rd option. Like you said though, nobody ever really drafts a QB after the 3rd round with the intent on developing him in to a future starter.

Phil Emery: Developing late-round quarterbacks doesn't work

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