Why the Astros Will Win the 2017 AL West

CoachAF

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Not even a month into the off-season, and Luhnow has already made 4 significant additions to a team that came close to the playoffs last season. Each of them have addressed problems with last year's club. In no particular order those were: 
 
1- Horrendous offensive production in the OF
2- A heavy RHB line-up
3- Pitiful offensive production from C
4- Strikeout heavy line-up
 
Out: Jason Castro, Colby Rasmus, Pat Neshek, Doug Fister, Luis Valbuena
 
In: Norichi Aoki, Charlie Morton, Josh Reddick, Brian McCann
 
What I love about the additions of Reddick and Aoki is the versatility it brings to our outfield defense and then also their positive contact rate at the plate. The Astros line-up has been filled with windmills from top to bottom the last few years, and it will be nice to see a couple solid contact hitters in the line-up regularly. Reddick is a plus defender at either corner outfield spot, and Aoki plays an average LF or CF. This just gives Hinch some flexibility when it comes to how he arranges his outfield defense. Outside of Springer last year, the OF play was beyond pathetic. Defensively we were good, but they were one of the worst hitting groups in the majors. Reddick is a platoon player, but with reasonable RHB options like Marisnick and Teoscar Hernandez, we could get by with this group. 400 AB's each out of Aoki and Reddick would be a major improvement from last year's group.
 
Charlie Morton is a sneaky, decent signing. The health concern is real, but I think he is as good a risky signing as doug Fister was last off-season. He is a super groundball heavy pitcher (Luhnow's fave), and with the way we shift heavily could see some real success. I'm not counting on it, but he fits the back end of the rotation just nicely. There's value in that. 
 
Brian McCann is a sight for sore eyes. With nothing of note in the farm system when it comes to catching prospects, we needed an everyday catcher. Castro is good defensively, but is pitiful with the stick. His days are up in Houston. The FA market for catching is reasonably good, but comes with many questionable guys like Wieters and Ramos (both sporting injury concerns). McCann may not be the Braves version, but he still has power and draws walks at a great clip. Pair him with Gattis (for the second time now), and we have a fairly solid catching duo. We can rotate him into the DH every now and then to give him a rest and keep him fresh. 
 
These 3 moves on the offensive side really just stretch out the quality of our line-up as opposed to making a big splash. A big splash would have been (and still might be) nice, but the 5-9 hitters last year were just inconsistent and rough to watch night in and night out. Too many strikeouts, and not enough baserunners. 
 
 
My 'Way too early' projected lineup: 
 
C: Brian McCann
1B: Yulieski Gurriel
2B: Jose Altuve
SS: Carlos Correa
3B: Alex Bregman
LF: Norichi Aoki
CF: George Springer
RF: Josh Reddick
DH: Evan Gattis
 
Now this line-up is going to flex against righties and lefties. Reddick will sit against all LHP, and you might see some Marisnick/Hernandez/Reed maybe even out there. The DH will be rotated through like it was last year to give McCann breaks, and "off-days" for guys in the field. I wouldn't write off another offensive signing. They certainly could use a more veteran OF, but this line-up is pretty solid. They really lacked good LHB last season, and McCann/Reddick help fix that problem. We wont be as RHB heavy as we have been. The guys they brought in really just complimented perfectly what we already have in place. 
 
The Astros had 3 pitchers who greatly underperformed from what would be their expected performance levels: Dallas Keuchel, Tony Sipp, and Ken Giles. I think we will see bounceback years out of all 3 of those guys. I don't think Keuchel is a perennial Cy Young candidate, but I do think he is a frontline starter. Health in the rotation will be a key this season, and is something that bit them at the end of the last season. 
 
I think that the Astros have set themselves up for a big trade at the Winter Meetings for a SP. I don't think we necessarily need it, but I think it would put us in a better spot to be serious contenders. Either way, I think that Luhnow has made 4 moves that have each addressed deficiencies that we suffered from last season. And he hasn't broken the bank on any of the moves. We still can add a significant salary or two. The best thing is, that I dont think we are in a position where we have to now with these moves that were made. If we didnt make these moves I would feel differently, but Luhnow can go into the Winter Meetings with a bit less pressure.
 
Houston Astros in 2017, Making Baseball Great Again
 

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