UFC 116: Lesnar vs. Carwin

Pugz

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mir is like 30 pounds lighter. hes better on the gorund but when lesnar gets you down that 30 pound difference pays off HUGELY.
 

sheed

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Yeah as you could tell in the second fight between them. Mir couldn't do <Censored> with Lesnar sitting on him. I love Mir though. But I love Brock too.
 

sheed

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Why do you guys hate him so much? Because he is so dominant?
 

snipezo

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He's not really dominant lol.
 

Pugz

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because hes an ass. he thinks because he fought an old washed up ramdy couture and frank ir hes done something. he hasnt really had a major test. but if you listen to him talk, hes the best ever.


hes 4-1. fedor is still the best.
 

sheed

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Fedor lost to Werdum lulz. Brock would beat them both.
 

Rice18

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Cant wait to see Brock in the octagon again. I already got a link.
 

ZigZag

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Why do you guys hate him so much? Because he is so dominant?
I hate him because he's a complete douche. I dislike his personality.


Lesnar wins, but Carwin has the best chance out of anyone imo
 

Pugz

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sheed, really? brock is no where near fedor..
 

Mooche

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I hate him because he's an arrogant asshole Sheed. Really, dominate? He's not. He hasn't shown me ANY skill in his wins.... sitting on a guy, punching him in the head, and doing <Censored> all the entire fight is not skill. Fedor (yeah, talk about his recent loss) is a guy who punishes his opponents. He can stand-up, he can take them down, he can submit them. He can do it all. Brock is so one dimensional it isn't even funny.
 

sheed

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Haha you guys can say all you want, but once he kills Carwin you will believe me. But if he doesn't, I'll just look like an idiot. Oh well haha.
 

Mooche

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He might kill Carwin... who knows. I'm no Carwin fan. But with that said, he isn't that talented so.
 

Pugz

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carwin stands the best chance right now. im not saying its going to be easy for either of them, but i do want carwin to win. either way, the heavyweight division is weak in my opinion and dana needs to try and get some better fighters there..then again he has a crush on brock and doesnt want him to ever lose.
 

sheed

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Who doesn't have a crush on Brock? :p But yeah once he kills Carwin there will be no competition at all in the heavyweight division.
 

Pugz

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Saturday night’s Brock Lesnar-Shane Carwin heavyweight title unification match, which headlines UFC 116 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, pits two men who have bulldozed their way through everyone in their path.

It’s rare when the biggest fight in a year is filled with so many questions.

What happens when those two physically gifted fighters collide?

What happens when UFC heavyweight champion Lesnar faces a compatible competitor with one-punch knockout power? Carwin is also a good enough wrestler to challenge Lesnar.


When happens when Shane Carwin, the interim champ who has never reached the four-minute mark in 12 pro fights, is in for the first time with someone who is just as physically strong and athletic, if not more so, and at least on paper, a better wrestler?

The standup game

Both men, largely due to their own physical domination and lack of cage time, come in with significant questions. Lesnar (4-1) has only had five pro fights. The limited standup we’ve seen shows uncertainty and no refinement, but almost freakish power.


In his first UFC fight, Lesnar knocked Frank Mir to the ground with a poorly thrown arm punch. Lesnar’s first punch against Heath Herring broke Herring’s orbital bone and sent him flying head over heels. Randy Couture was more experienced with better movement standing, but was knocked out by Lesnar’s “Inspector Gadget” arms fighting standup, supposedly Lesnar’s weak point. Yet, Carwin likely hits harder. He has one-punch knockout power that Lesnar doesn’t have, as evidenced by his devastating wins over Christian Wellisch and Gabriel Gonzaga. Carwin, a low-key engineer outside the ring, can flip a mental switch and instantly finish an opponent with short sledgehammer blows from close range standing or on the ground.

Stamina

Questions remain about stamina. Lesnar was a well-conditioned heavyweight as a champion wrestler at Minnesota, but college wrestling matches last seven minutes and a UFC championship match can go 25. Additionally, the combination of disciplines changes the game. Lesnar had no trouble going three rounds with Herring, but it’s a lot easier going the distance while dominating a fight from the outset.

Carwin lives in the thin air of Colorado, and trains for long matches, but 25 minutes in the gym against a revolving group of fighters of various sizes is very different than 25 minutes with a guy whose unique brand of speed, power and wrestling ability is almost impossible to replicate.

But few expect this fight to go the distance. It may be a very simple matter of who lands a big right hand first. Carwin has more experience in the sport, and in standup training. While little is known about Lesnar’s training, he brought in Peter Welch as a boxing trainer and has focused on defensive boxing. Who lands the first big blow is a crapshoot, making predictions on the outcome foolish.

Hitting the mat

Both fighters have exceptional wrestling history. On paper, Lesnar has the edge. He was 55-3 in two years at Minnesota, winning the NCAA title as a senior in 2000, and coming one point away as a junior, losing to Stephen Neal, now of the New England Patriots.

In 1999, Carwin was Division II national champion at Western State College in Colorado, where he was also a two-time All-American linebacker. Lesnar would have had the edge on Carwin in their college days, but that doesn’t mean much on Saturday. Folkstyle wrestling and MMA wrestling have differences in the setup, and very different dangers. Comparing strictly on wrestling, a Division II national champion can beat a Division I champion.

Those who favor Carwin map out the fight simply. His defensive wrestling should be good enough to keep it standing, where the odds are in his favor. Those who favor Lesnar will counter that he’s a better wrestler, that Gabriel Gonzaga took Carwin down immediately in their fight, and that Lesnar can put Carwin in positions than Carwin has never faced in previous fights.

Lesnar is in a camp filled with heavyweight wrestlers, most of whom were peaking with him. Chris Tutscherer and Jon Madsen are fighting on Saturday night’s undercard, and Cole Konrad just fought a few weeks ago. He’s also had Tommy Rowlands, one of the country’s best active heavyweight wrestlers, in camp, as well as Couture, who has adapted wrestling into an MMA fight seamlessly. With that much experience, Lesnar should be sharp and peaking as well.

The rest

The kicking game is not likely to be a factor. Carwin has some submission ability, although of his five submissions, most have been pounding on the ground until the opponent taps, as opposed to slick Brazilian jiu-jitsu finishes. Jiu-jitsu is also not likely to come into play.

Carwin has been the physical bully and the better athlete in every fight he’s been in so far, just like Lesnar. If you compare athletic ability based on both men’s NFL combine numbers, Lesnar would be bigger, stronger, significantly quicker and more explosive. But this isn’t a bench-press or 40-yard dash contest. I wouldn’t hesitate in putting money on Lesnar if they were both training for a decathlon or brought in for a remake of the old “Superstars” television series.

While Lesnar is listed at 6-foot-4 and Carwin has been billed at 6-5, when the two went face-to-face on March 27 after Carwin beat Mir, Lesnar towered over Carwin. Even if their weights are similar, Carwin appears like a well-conditioned powerhouse while Lesnar, with his huge back, wide shoulders and overall density, has a very different kind of size.

The big question

No question looms larger than how Lesnar is physically affected by his life-threatening battle with diverticulitis.

The old Lesnar ate anything and everything he wanted, figuring his hard training would burn any calories from a questionable diet. With his new regime of healthier eating and being limited to 3,200 calories per day, he’s at 265 pounds. Lesnar no longer has to cut to make weight and is probably 12-15 pounds less then he was prior to other big fights. The 35-year-old Carwin, a little over a week out, was 10 pounds heavier than Lesnar.

Will this result in a better conditioned and quicker Lesnar, the latter of which would be very significant in this fight? Was he really feeling the effects of his illness last year and is this year’s version going to be a step up? Lesnar, 33, has been training since January. Has this meant a significant improvement in his skill level? Or will a slightly smaller Lesnar not have the overpowering strength he’s relied on in MMA and wrestling since high school?

And while Lesnar has denied its existence, what of ring rust? Saturday is 51 weeks since Lesnar beat Mir. The one consistency of nearly every name fighter who is out of competition that long is they deny before the fight it’s a factor, noting that the way they train replicates a fight. And then after a fight, one by one, they sing a different tune.

As for which tune Lesnar will sing at the end of the night Saturday, we’ll simply have to wait and see.
 

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