- Thread starter
- #1
So I put together an analysis of Derek Carr's game vs Rutgers for you guys. I took 11 plays from that game, positive and negative and broke them down to see why Carr succeeded or failed on the play. These plays were the ones that stood out in a sense of evaluating his NFL worth, readiness and draft value. I know it looks like a loooong post, but that only because of all the screen shots. I'd also like to say a big thanks to Draftbreakdown.com for the video this is based from. Great site with an insane amount if player tape if you guys haven't heard of it. Let me know if you guys enjoy this or not, and if you'd like me to do more of these, and if so who you'd like to see. If not also tell me, cause this took a long ass time to put together. I'm happy to do it if it helps anyone and you enjoy it, but if not I'd rather spend my time in other ways
Anyways let's get to it!
EDIT: For some reason the last 7 "Full Play videos wouldn't embed, is there a limit of 4 videos per post? In any case, the links are in the post for each play!
Play 1
3rd and 1: The wideouts here run a common combo: slant and a wheel. Given the man coverage look, this is a great call.
The route combo does exactly what it's supposed to do. Well coached DB's will switch receivers to maintain position, however here the DB's get confused if they are going to switch or not, and both end up taking the slot. The slant is wide open and this should be an easy TD. Carr however makes the wrong read and throws to the double covered wheel.
On top of making the wrong read, Carr's mechanics/footwork is extremely lazy. Carr's front aim foot is completely off target, which affects the rest of his body, causing him to use just his arm to throw the pass, rather than letting the energy flow naturally through his body to deliver an accurate pass.
As I said before, he definitely made the wrong read, but in this case he got lucky, because as the DB's scrambled to make up the coverage, they ran into each other, causing the DB who ultimately covered the wheel to fall down. Should be an easy six points at this point. But oh wait, wasn't Carr's mechanics way off on this play? Yep. And because he didn't use the proper mechanics he missed the TD. By just using his arm, his feet, hips and mid section were off, and he overcompensated with his arm and overthrew the ball, making it uncatchable. Elite QB's don't a) have really bad mechanics, or b) miss an easy read. Carr managed to do both on this play.
Full Play
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7o1cYfl5Ob4[/youtube]
----------
Play 2
3rd and 7: Again in the redzone, Carr made another crucial error. He had two WR's lined up to his left, labelled here has WR1, and WR2. WR1 ran a corner, and WR2 (the slot) ran an out. WR1 has clearly beaten his man, while WR2 is locked up.
Though WR1 beat his man, Carr didn't see that DB2 was actually close enough to WR1 to make a play on the ball, and the result is an INT. Carr had "tunnel vision" on WR1, and didn't see the whole field. Based off these last two red zone plays, it is clear Carr needs to improve in reading the defence/field vision. While I don't believe Carr "locked on" to his target on this play like the last, he was fooled into a throw by a nice play by the DB, and an equally poor job of seeing the field on his own part.
Full Play
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HGZugBDcBoI[/youtube]
----------
Play 3
1st and 10: Due to the camera work it's hard to see what the defence is doing exactly or what his receivers are doing, but it doesn't matter here. On this play, the pocket gets pushed around Carr, and he does an excellent job of stepping up and through it, showing his escapability.
As he stepped up, the pocket collapsed too much for him to continue to look for the pass, so he got a chance to show off his sneaky, underrated athleticism, and that 4.56 speed. It's nice too see him step up through the mess, rather than role out and get pushed back. For a lot of less athletic QB's, this easily would be a sack, but Carr shows the ability to sense the pocket, and leave at a perfect time, avoiding a sack, and even picks up about nice gain of about 15 yards.
Full Play
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yfPRJLAgQRQ[/youtube]
----------
Play 4
2nd and Goal: Pre snap, the defence is clearly play man coverage. Carr had his favourite target, 6'2 Davante Adams, 1 on 1 in isolation. That's a matchup QB's drool over, and the perfect situation to run the fade route. This will be a very similar throw to the wheel Carr missed earlier in the game.
Carr missed the similar throw earlier in the game due to poor mechanics, pointing his aim foot way off. He does not make the same mistake, this time pointing the foot right on target, allowing his hips and shoulders to square up to the throw. With the mechanics spot on, Carr will get to show if he has "touch" or not.
With the right mechanics, here Carr showed great touch and accuracy, placing the ball high, in a spot where only his receiver can catch it. Touch is a very underrated trait that all great QB's possess, and Carr showed he has it on this throw.
Full Play
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQBPosEN_o[/youtube]
----------
Play 5
4th and 3: This is a play we're all familiar with. Read-option. Yeah I know most people understand the concept but Carr again got to show off his speed so this is a play that stands out. The DE and OLB both crashed on the dive fake, and so Carr made the right read and kept the ball.
Even though the DE and OLB both crashed, there will still be someone responsible for the QB, and that's DB1. DB1 does have a chance to make the play, but again Carr has the athleticism and speed to elude the defender and pick up a large gain on 4th down with his legs.
Full Play
----------
Play 6
1st and 10: Pre snap Carr recognized that 7 men are in the box. With his o-line and RB staying in to protect, that meant that someone was coming unblocked. He understood he would need to get rid of the ball quickly. Again Carr got his favourite receiver isolated, with clear 1 on 1 coverage. For the second time, Carr is drooling at the match up presented to him. Wanna bet they run a fade?
I hope you took that bet, because they sure did run the fade. Carr's mechanics were again on point, his foot is pointing to where he wants to throw, hips and shoulders square to the target. Based off these proper mechanics, we can now see if Carr's touch was a fluke on the first fade, or if it's legit.
Carr again placed the ball high and at a spot only his man could get the ball, proving his touch and accuracy on the first fade wasn't a fluke.
Full Play:
----------
Play 7
1st and 10: On this play Carr his wideouts both running go's, his TE running a seam route, and his slot just bubbling out. Pre snap it looks like the D is sending 5 rushers to the QB. Each WR has a man lined up directly over him with inside shade, the WLB over the slot, and the safety to Carr's right lining up over the TE, man coverage is a good bet, more specifically Cover 1. The other safety will have deep coverage, and the MLB should have the RB.
Post snap, it still appears the coverage was man (the S on Carr's right immediately took the TE, the MLB sprinted to the RB, and the CB to Carr's ran with his WR), but the defence played it really, really horribly. The CB covering the WR on Carr's left committed a big no no for man coverage: he peeked into the backfield! Carr knew exactly what to do. He pumped the bubble to his slot, which caused the CB to run forward in anticipation. In turn, the WR was able to slip behind him.
Once his WR ran past his CB, Carr delivered a perfect throw over the CB, and in front of the S (who rolled to his right as Carr rolled to his left) rather than leading him which could have resulted in an INT, and allowed his WR time to make a move on the S and scamper in for the TD. Overall great play for Carr. Though the read was simple, he manipulated the cheating CB with his eyes and pump fake, which is great to see from a young QB. Great play overall for Carr.
Full Play:
----------
Play 8
1st and 10: Honestly, this play really confuses me. I really am not sure why this play wasn't changed by the QB. This is probably why I just watch football rather than play it (anymore). We have a rub play called by the offense with the TE and slot running to the middle of the field to allow the LWR to run underneath them while they pick his man. RWR clears out for the LWR to have running room. The thing is, this play will only work against man, and the pre snap the D is showing zone (both CB's looking at QB, among other things points to Cover 3, but I won't get into it because I'm wrong). If I was the QB/coach, I'm making an audible. But again, this is why I'm just watching football and not playing. In any case, Carr/coach seemed to know the D IS in man (perhaps from earlier in the game or from game tape, I really don't know), because not only was the play kept, it was the perfect play to call against that defense! The play the D actually ran was a Cover 1 Man CB blitz. Everyone was in man coverage (except deep safety), while the LCB blitzed. This meant the other safety was now responsible for the WR the play is designed for. Now, instead of just a CB being picked, the safety will literally have a wall of 4 players (TE, Slot, and the 2 LB's playing man on them) to get through to get to the WR.
They play works like a charm, with LWR running bother free through the middle, with the safety being walled off. Granted the LB responsible for the RB was in position to make a tackle on the WR because he also was inadvertently picked on his way to the RB, I'll take my chances on a WR vs a LB whose momentum is working against him. Now all Carr had to do was deliver the ball, which he didn't do. Ideally you'd like to see Carr step up (even into a hit if he must, he took a hit anyways) and deliver the strike, but instead he drifted back, threw off his back foot, and the ball was off target. The WR was unable to make the catch, and as he tried tipped the ball up and it was almost picked off. This would have been on Carr. Unlike the play earlier, Carr did not show good pocket presence and it prevented what could have been a big play.
Full Play:
----------
Play 9
3rd and 6: Here the called play is a simple clear play. They LWR and slot will run go's to clear out the area for RWR to come underneath. Pre snap the defense is showing Cover 2 Zone: Both safeties are equally deep, and the CB's are staring into Carr's soul. They have 5 men threatening to rush (1 LB who would be blitzing). Carr knew this was no trouble, because obviously he has 5 OL, plus his RB was sticking around to help block. Clearing plays are built to attack a zone defense, so Carr knew he could exploit it.
Post snap, Carr started down the go's to ensure the DB's would clear with them. The LB who was potentially blitzing, delayed and then stepped back into coverage. This could have been an issue, but due to Carr staring the go's, the LB was unaware of the crossing route and couldn't make a play. Carr had great protection on the play and was able to stand tall and deliver an accurate pass. Though nothing Carr did this play was extraordinary, the ability to manipulate the D with his eyes is why the play worked. If he had stared down the crossing route, the LB would have know a route was coming through his zone, and had a good chance at picking him off.
Full Play:
----------
Play 10
2nd and 7: Pre snap the defense showed zone again. Based off how deep the S's and CB's are, and the game situation, Cover 4 is a safe bet. Basically the "don't get beat deep" defense.
Here Carr is clearly looking at his RWR. The CB covering him is only worried about getting beat deep. The LB with the mid coverage to that side is tied up with the slot WR. In this instance I would have liked to see him step up into that beautifully formed pocket and throw a back shoulder throw to the WR, or a throw that at least tells him to sit. With the CB's momentum taking him back and the LB being tied up, it's a safe high percentage throw. Instead of making this play, he hesitated. You can see he wanted it; he almost pulled the trigger. I would have liked to see him have the confidence to rip this throw. It was there.
Instead Carr makes up for it and makes a great play. He didn't like what he had on the right, so he rolled to his left. The roll caused the CB covering the LWR's hook to bite for just a second at the thought of Carr taking off. This allowed the hook WR to beat the CB deep, in the "don't get beat deep" defense. Carr was able to take this shot because the S who was responsible for the deep middle left quarter of the field was occupied by the post run by the left slot, and was in no position to make a play.
Now the throw Carr made is why he has rocketed up draft boards. Rolling to his left, Carr delivered an absolutely perfect touch pass 30 yards down the field. This would be a great throw even if he wasn't on the run. The throw was just out of the CB's reach, and placed perfectly to allow the WR to come down in bounds. This is a rare throw. This is why people are excited about Carr.
Full Play:
----------
Play 11
1st and 10: The play is go's and hooks. Defense again shows a deep zone. After the snap, the CB's don't even care about the hooks. All they are worried about is a deep ball.
Carr knew he's wasn't getting one of the outside go's. So instead he looked for his innermost slot on his right, and hit him in the seam on a rope. Most NFL QB's couldn't make this throw. Carr really shows off how strong his arm is (like Stafford level), and how accurate he can be down the field. This throw was brilliant, and another reason a team will fall in love with him.
Full Play:
----------
Now, I just have a few notes to tie together some loose ends:
Thanks for reading guys, sorry it was so long! Let me know if/who you want another one on.
EDIT: For some reason the last 7 "Full Play videos wouldn't embed, is there a limit of 4 videos per post? In any case, the links are in the post for each play!
Play 1
3rd and 1: The wideouts here run a common combo: slant and a wheel. Given the man coverage look, this is a great call.
The route combo does exactly what it's supposed to do. Well coached DB's will switch receivers to maintain position, however here the DB's get confused if they are going to switch or not, and both end up taking the slot. The slant is wide open and this should be an easy TD. Carr however makes the wrong read and throws to the double covered wheel.
On top of making the wrong read, Carr's mechanics/footwork is extremely lazy. Carr's front aim foot is completely off target, which affects the rest of his body, causing him to use just his arm to throw the pass, rather than letting the energy flow naturally through his body to deliver an accurate pass.
As I said before, he definitely made the wrong read, but in this case he got lucky, because as the DB's scrambled to make up the coverage, they ran into each other, causing the DB who ultimately covered the wheel to fall down. Should be an easy six points at this point. But oh wait, wasn't Carr's mechanics way off on this play? Yep. And because he didn't use the proper mechanics he missed the TD. By just using his arm, his feet, hips and mid section were off, and he overcompensated with his arm and overthrew the ball, making it uncatchable. Elite QB's don't a) have really bad mechanics, or b) miss an easy read. Carr managed to do both on this play.
Full Play
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7o1cYfl5Ob4[/youtube]
----------
Play 2
3rd and 7: Again in the redzone, Carr made another crucial error. He had two WR's lined up to his left, labelled here has WR1, and WR2. WR1 ran a corner, and WR2 (the slot) ran an out. WR1 has clearly beaten his man, while WR2 is locked up.
Though WR1 beat his man, Carr didn't see that DB2 was actually close enough to WR1 to make a play on the ball, and the result is an INT. Carr had "tunnel vision" on WR1, and didn't see the whole field. Based off these last two red zone plays, it is clear Carr needs to improve in reading the defence/field vision. While I don't believe Carr "locked on" to his target on this play like the last, he was fooled into a throw by a nice play by the DB, and an equally poor job of seeing the field on his own part.
Full Play
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HGZugBDcBoI[/youtube]
----------
Play 3
1st and 10: Due to the camera work it's hard to see what the defence is doing exactly or what his receivers are doing, but it doesn't matter here. On this play, the pocket gets pushed around Carr, and he does an excellent job of stepping up and through it, showing his escapability.
As he stepped up, the pocket collapsed too much for him to continue to look for the pass, so he got a chance to show off his sneaky, underrated athleticism, and that 4.56 speed. It's nice too see him step up through the mess, rather than role out and get pushed back. For a lot of less athletic QB's, this easily would be a sack, but Carr shows the ability to sense the pocket, and leave at a perfect time, avoiding a sack, and even picks up about nice gain of about 15 yards.
Full Play
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yfPRJLAgQRQ[/youtube]
----------
Play 4
2nd and Goal: Pre snap, the defence is clearly play man coverage. Carr had his favourite target, 6'2 Davante Adams, 1 on 1 in isolation. That's a matchup QB's drool over, and the perfect situation to run the fade route. This will be a very similar throw to the wheel Carr missed earlier in the game.
Carr missed the similar throw earlier in the game due to poor mechanics, pointing his aim foot way off. He does not make the same mistake, this time pointing the foot right on target, allowing his hips and shoulders to square up to the throw. With the mechanics spot on, Carr will get to show if he has "touch" or not.
With the right mechanics, here Carr showed great touch and accuracy, placing the ball high, in a spot where only his receiver can catch it. Touch is a very underrated trait that all great QB's possess, and Carr showed he has it on this throw.
Full Play
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obQBPosEN_o[/youtube]
----------
Play 5
4th and 3: This is a play we're all familiar with. Read-option. Yeah I know most people understand the concept but Carr again got to show off his speed so this is a play that stands out. The DE and OLB both crashed on the dive fake, and so Carr made the right read and kept the ball.
Even though the DE and OLB both crashed, there will still be someone responsible for the QB, and that's DB1. DB1 does have a chance to make the play, but again Carr has the athleticism and speed to elude the defender and pick up a large gain on 4th down with his legs.
Full Play
----------
Play 6
1st and 10: Pre snap Carr recognized that 7 men are in the box. With his o-line and RB staying in to protect, that meant that someone was coming unblocked. He understood he would need to get rid of the ball quickly. Again Carr got his favourite receiver isolated, with clear 1 on 1 coverage. For the second time, Carr is drooling at the match up presented to him. Wanna bet they run a fade?
I hope you took that bet, because they sure did run the fade. Carr's mechanics were again on point, his foot is pointing to where he wants to throw, hips and shoulders square to the target. Based off these proper mechanics, we can now see if Carr's touch was a fluke on the first fade, or if it's legit.
Carr again placed the ball high and at a spot only his man could get the ball, proving his touch and accuracy on the first fade wasn't a fluke.
Full Play:
----------
Play 7
1st and 10: On this play Carr his wideouts both running go's, his TE running a seam route, and his slot just bubbling out. Pre snap it looks like the D is sending 5 rushers to the QB. Each WR has a man lined up directly over him with inside shade, the WLB over the slot, and the safety to Carr's right lining up over the TE, man coverage is a good bet, more specifically Cover 1. The other safety will have deep coverage, and the MLB should have the RB.
Post snap, it still appears the coverage was man (the S on Carr's right immediately took the TE, the MLB sprinted to the RB, and the CB to Carr's ran with his WR), but the defence played it really, really horribly. The CB covering the WR on Carr's left committed a big no no for man coverage: he peeked into the backfield! Carr knew exactly what to do. He pumped the bubble to his slot, which caused the CB to run forward in anticipation. In turn, the WR was able to slip behind him.
Once his WR ran past his CB, Carr delivered a perfect throw over the CB, and in front of the S (who rolled to his right as Carr rolled to his left) rather than leading him which could have resulted in an INT, and allowed his WR time to make a move on the S and scamper in for the TD. Overall great play for Carr. Though the read was simple, he manipulated the cheating CB with his eyes and pump fake, which is great to see from a young QB. Great play overall for Carr.
Full Play:
----------
Play 8
1st and 10: Honestly, this play really confuses me. I really am not sure why this play wasn't changed by the QB. This is probably why I just watch football rather than play it (anymore). We have a rub play called by the offense with the TE and slot running to the middle of the field to allow the LWR to run underneath them while they pick his man. RWR clears out for the LWR to have running room. The thing is, this play will only work against man, and the pre snap the D is showing zone (both CB's looking at QB, among other things points to Cover 3, but I won't get into it because I'm wrong). If I was the QB/coach, I'm making an audible. But again, this is why I'm just watching football and not playing. In any case, Carr/coach seemed to know the D IS in man (perhaps from earlier in the game or from game tape, I really don't know), because not only was the play kept, it was the perfect play to call against that defense! The play the D actually ran was a Cover 1 Man CB blitz. Everyone was in man coverage (except deep safety), while the LCB blitzed. This meant the other safety was now responsible for the WR the play is designed for. Now, instead of just a CB being picked, the safety will literally have a wall of 4 players (TE, Slot, and the 2 LB's playing man on them) to get through to get to the WR.
They play works like a charm, with LWR running bother free through the middle, with the safety being walled off. Granted the LB responsible for the RB was in position to make a tackle on the WR because he also was inadvertently picked on his way to the RB, I'll take my chances on a WR vs a LB whose momentum is working against him. Now all Carr had to do was deliver the ball, which he didn't do. Ideally you'd like to see Carr step up (even into a hit if he must, he took a hit anyways) and deliver the strike, but instead he drifted back, threw off his back foot, and the ball was off target. The WR was unable to make the catch, and as he tried tipped the ball up and it was almost picked off. This would have been on Carr. Unlike the play earlier, Carr did not show good pocket presence and it prevented what could have been a big play.
Full Play:
----------
Play 9
3rd and 6: Here the called play is a simple clear play. They LWR and slot will run go's to clear out the area for RWR to come underneath. Pre snap the defense is showing Cover 2 Zone: Both safeties are equally deep, and the CB's are staring into Carr's soul. They have 5 men threatening to rush (1 LB who would be blitzing). Carr knew this was no trouble, because obviously he has 5 OL, plus his RB was sticking around to help block. Clearing plays are built to attack a zone defense, so Carr knew he could exploit it.
Post snap, Carr started down the go's to ensure the DB's would clear with them. The LB who was potentially blitzing, delayed and then stepped back into coverage. This could have been an issue, but due to Carr staring the go's, the LB was unaware of the crossing route and couldn't make a play. Carr had great protection on the play and was able to stand tall and deliver an accurate pass. Though nothing Carr did this play was extraordinary, the ability to manipulate the D with his eyes is why the play worked. If he had stared down the crossing route, the LB would have know a route was coming through his zone, and had a good chance at picking him off.
Full Play:
----------
Play 10
2nd and 7: Pre snap the defense showed zone again. Based off how deep the S's and CB's are, and the game situation, Cover 4 is a safe bet. Basically the "don't get beat deep" defense.
Here Carr is clearly looking at his RWR. The CB covering him is only worried about getting beat deep. The LB with the mid coverage to that side is tied up with the slot WR. In this instance I would have liked to see him step up into that beautifully formed pocket and throw a back shoulder throw to the WR, or a throw that at least tells him to sit. With the CB's momentum taking him back and the LB being tied up, it's a safe high percentage throw. Instead of making this play, he hesitated. You can see he wanted it; he almost pulled the trigger. I would have liked to see him have the confidence to rip this throw. It was there.
Instead Carr makes up for it and makes a great play. He didn't like what he had on the right, so he rolled to his left. The roll caused the CB covering the LWR's hook to bite for just a second at the thought of Carr taking off. This allowed the hook WR to beat the CB deep, in the "don't get beat deep" defense. Carr was able to take this shot because the S who was responsible for the deep middle left quarter of the field was occupied by the post run by the left slot, and was in no position to make a play.
Now the throw Carr made is why he has rocketed up draft boards. Rolling to his left, Carr delivered an absolutely perfect touch pass 30 yards down the field. This would be a great throw even if he wasn't on the run. The throw was just out of the CB's reach, and placed perfectly to allow the WR to come down in bounds. This is a rare throw. This is why people are excited about Carr.
Full Play:
----------
Play 11
1st and 10: The play is go's and hooks. Defense again shows a deep zone. After the snap, the CB's don't even care about the hooks. All they are worried about is a deep ball.
Carr knew he's wasn't getting one of the outside go's. So instead he looked for his innermost slot on his right, and hit him in the seam on a rope. Most NFL QB's couldn't make this throw. Carr really shows off how strong his arm is (like Stafford level), and how accurate he can be down the field. This throw was brilliant, and another reason a team will fall in love with him.
Full Play:
----------
Now, I just have a few notes to tie together some loose ends:
- The amount of screen passes in this game was insane. He had 73 attempts, I'd say about 20-30 were WR screens.
- On top of the screens, I'm sure he checked the ball down to the RB another 10-15. What was scary about this is the fact that on a handful of plays he looked at his checkdown before the other routes. Massive red flag. Some looked possibly designed for some reason, as the WR's looked to block a few steps into their "route". It was really odd. I won't put it all on Carr. But the potential is there for him to be another Captain Checkdown
- If you look at his season/game stats, they are as misleading as can be. In every category, including INT's.
- Maybe 5-10 of his attempts travelled more than 15 yards from the LOS
- There are literally no NFL concepts to this offense. No progression whatsoever. This is a HUGE red flag.
- I fully expect someone to fall in love with him and take him early
Thanks for reading guys, sorry it was so long! Let me know if/who you want another one on.
